Saxo Morning Call

A week of data, meetings, and politics

Clare MacCarthy
Senior Editor, Saxo Bank

A busy week lies ahead with a slew of important macroeconomic data, and central bank meetings as well as the ongoing sagas of international trade tensions and sanctions, plus, of course, the corporate earnings season which this week will see Apple's much-anticipated release.

"It's a very busy week for the status of many things and especially the dollar, US yields, and a status check on the Federal Reserve as well," says John Hardy, Saxo's head for FX strategy. The yield on 10-year Treasuries jumped beyond 3% last week (a six-year high) and though it subsequently tipped back lower, it is expected to remain elevated this week, thereby facilitating additional dollar strength, he adds.

Elsewhere, GBP was crushed lower at the tail end of last week by a very weak UK Q1 GDP report and this week will likely extend to the downside with key areas for GBPUSD being 1.3700–1.3750 and then the 1.3600–1.3650.

Meanwhile, equities are in a somewhat confused state – the corporate earnings season is producing strong results but this has failed to lift sentiment, says Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy. Investors are increasingly worried about interest rates and macro developments outside the US, he notes. "We remain strategically defensive," Garnry concludes.

But commodities, broadly put, are on a roll and April has show some decent advances, especially for oil which has been boosted by trade tensions and the threat of fresh sanctions in Iran, says Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy. Indeed oil now trades near a three-year high as Iranian and Venezuelan supply worries, along with strong demand, are offsetting a continued rise in the US rig count.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.