Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 27 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US Inflation and Chinese Stimulus to watch - Last Morning Brew until October 22


Good morning,

From today onwards, I will be traveling for the next three weeks. I refer you to the global research on the platform. I have tried to compose a list of the key events until the end of October. It is not unlikely, though, that the most significant impulses will not be economic releases but rather:

  • Geopolitical events (Ukraine, Israel, Sino-US relations)
  • Stimulus in China
  • The US Election
  • The unknown unknowns

Equities had a good day yesterday across the board, but stocks with exposure to China did particularly well. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. The GER rallied 1.7%, and the China 300 increased by 4.2%. Micron gained almost 16% on positive guidance, Li rose 7%, PDD 13%, and Alibaba 10%. Miners also rose. Volumes were high at 12.5 billion shares against an average of 11.8 billion.

US data yesterday seemed to confirm that the US economy is in a better place than feared. That boosted sentiment for stocks but weighed on yield cut expectations, causing yields to rise. The USD Index followed. We are trading the 10-Year at 3.8% and the USD Index at 100.80. EURUSD is at 1.1165, GBPUSD at 1.3385, and USDJPY at 145.85. After the 25 basis point cut by the Swiss National Bank, the Swiss Franc did not move substantially; we basically remain in the range. EURCHF is 0.9470, and USDCHF is 0.8478.

Gold remains at the highs at 2670, and Silver is very interesting to watch or trade at the moment. Key resistance is at 32.50, which we tested yesterday, selling off and recovering to 32. Implied volatility is 32 for a 1-month ATM option.

Today, all eyes will be on economic data and Chinese stimulus. We are expecting the French CPI at 8:45, the Spanish GDP at 9:00, German unemployment at 09:55, and EU Consumer Confidence at 11:00. The elephant in the room is the US PCE at 14:30, with the core expected at 2.7% and the 2.3% for the “normal” YoY figure, as the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. The Canadian GDP and the University of Michigan Sentiment will follow.

Trade safely!

September 30: China PMI, UK GDP, China, CH KOF Indicator, DE Inflation

October 1: Japan Tankan, EU Inflation, US PMI,

October 2: EU Unemployment Rate

October 3: International PMI, US Initial Jobless Claims,

October 4: US Nonfarm Payroll:

October 7: DE Industrial Orders

October 10: US CPI

October 11: DE Inflation, UK GDP, US PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment

October 13: China CPI &PPI

October 15:UK Labor data, SE, FR, CA CPI, DE ZEW

October 16: UK CPI,

October 17: EU Inflation, US Retail Sales,

October 18: JP CPI, China, Retail Sales, GDP, UK Retail Sales,

October 21: China Rate decision,

October 23: Canada Rate Decision, EU Consumer Confidence,

October 24: International PMI

October 25 International PMI, US Durable Goods,

October 29: US Consumer Confidence

October 30: AU CPI

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.