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Morning Brew September 27 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Résumé: US Inflation and Chinese Stimulus to watch - Last Morning Brew until October 22
Good morning,
From today onwards, I will be traveling for the next three weeks. I refer you to the global research on the platform. I have tried to compose a list of the key events until the end of October. It is not unlikely, though, that the most significant impulses will not be economic releases but rather:
- Geopolitical events (Ukraine, Israel, Sino-US relations)
- Stimulus in China
- The US Election
- The unknown unknowns
Equities had a good day yesterday across the board, but stocks with exposure to China did particularly well. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. The GER rallied 1.7%, and the China 300 increased by 4.2%. Micron gained almost 16% on positive guidance, Li rose 7%, PDD 13%, and Alibaba 10%. Miners also rose. Volumes were high at 12.5 billion shares against an average of 11.8 billion.
US data yesterday seemed to confirm that the US economy is in a better place than feared. That boosted sentiment for stocks but weighed on yield cut expectations, causing yields to rise. The USD Index followed. We are trading the 10-Year at 3.8% and the USD Index at 100.80. EURUSD is at 1.1165, GBPUSD at 1.3385, and USDJPY at 145.85. After the 25 basis point cut by the Swiss National Bank, the Swiss Franc did not move substantially; we basically remain in the range. EURCHF is 0.9470, and USDCHF is 0.8478.
Gold remains at the highs at 2670, and Silver is very interesting to watch or trade at the moment. Key resistance is at 32.50, which we tested yesterday, selling off and recovering to 32. Implied volatility is 32 for a 1-month ATM option.
Today, all eyes will be on economic data and Chinese stimulus. We are expecting the French CPI at 8:45, the Spanish GDP at 9:00, German unemployment at 09:55, and EU Consumer Confidence at 11:00. The elephant in the room is the US PCE at 14:30, with the core expected at 2.7% and the 2.3% for the “normal” YoY figure, as the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. The Canadian GDP and the University of Michigan Sentiment will follow.
Trade safely!
September 30: China PMI, UK GDP, China, CH KOF Indicator, DE Inflation
October 1: Japan Tankan, EU Inflation, US PMI,
October 2: EU Unemployment Rate
October 3: International PMI, US Initial Jobless Claims,
October 4: US Nonfarm Payroll:
October 7: DE Industrial Orders
October 10: US CPI
October 11: DE Inflation, UK GDP, US PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment
October 13: China CPI &PPI
October 15:UK Labor data, SE, FR, CA CPI, DE ZEW
October 16: UK CPI,
October 17: EU Inflation, US Retail Sales,
October 18: JP CPI, China, Retail Sales, GDP, UK Retail Sales,
October 21: China Rate decision,
October 23: Canada Rate Decision, EU Consumer Confidence,
October 24: International PMI
October 25 International PMI, US Durable Goods,
October 29: US Consumer Confidence
October 30: AU CPI
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