Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Buy the Dip or Selloff?
Good Morning
Yesterday traders focused on the feds higher for longer approach and sent risk sentiment lower while Yields rose to the highest levels since the global financial crisis in 07.
The Dow lost 1.08%, the S&P 1.64%, and the Nasdaq 1.82% at the end of the trading day, Nvidia lost 2.89%, Amazon 4.4%, Alphabet -2.47%. Outliers were Fedex which delivered good results and Fox which gained after Rupert Murdoch announced his retirement.
GBP plunged to below 1.23 as the Bank of England left rates unchanged, the CHF also dropped on the CB`s pause. EURUSD held above the important 1.0635 support and is trading at 1.0650 The Yen lost on a dovish Bank of Japan this morning but Governor Ueda will speak at 8:30 CET.
Gold and Silver lost ground yesterday but recovered with Silver much stronger than gold. Gold is trading at 1925 while Silver is at 23.60. Oil seems relatively stable.
What are we looking out for ?
Makro Data: We are expecting Purchasing Manager Indexes from France (9:15) Germany (9:30) EU (10:00) UK, (10:30) US (15:45) and the Canadian Retail Sales at 14:30
UAW Strike: Final negotiations will take place before the strike is extended to more plants and facilities
Debt Ceiling: We have a week to resolve the debt ceiling, else federal agencies will start to shut down on Oct 1.
Tread carefully as traders digest the moves and contemplate the new levels – Will this be seen as a chance to buy the dips or is it the beginning of a selloff?
Erik