Morning Brew September 15 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Holding pattern ahead of many data points.
Yesterday the US PPI was more in line than the previously published CPI and calmed the market a little.
Stocks closed marginally higher yesterday and rates as well as FX stabilized but risk of increased volatility remains. US 10 Year yields are at 3.43, EURUSD hovers below parity at 0.9960, GBPUSD 1.1510 and USDJPY 143.66. Gold is near support at 1688 and Silver 19.44. Oil remains fairly high at 88.63
With 7 days left to the FOMC Rate decision and 31% probability of a 1% hike, nerves are a bit raw. The USD Index has gained app 15% this year and seems not to stop yet.
Technically Equities as look in a dangerous place.
Energy seems to be on the rise again with Dutch TTF in Focus
The Australian GDP surprised to the upside, at 1.7% vs 1% expected. Japan suffered its biggest single-month trade deficit on record in August
Today the German Wholesale prices will be releases at 8, EU Labor Data, and US Retail Sales and Labor data at 14:30, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet Chinas Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan today afternoon.
Tomorrow is the quarterly expiry of Futures and Options, please make sure you are on top of your contracts and don`t lose the exposure you would like due to the expiry.
With rates rising bonds are becoming interesting again – also on main street. There are a number of Investment funds with a focus on fixed income available, trading bonds can be quite technical.
Physically Settled Futures:
US Dollar Index - Sep 2022 (DXU2) will expire 16th Sep at 9:00 GMT
GBPUSD - Sep 2022 (BPU2), E-mini EURUSD - Sep 2022 (E7U2), EURUSD - Sep 2022 (ECU2), JPYUSD - Sep 2022 (JYU2), E-micro EURUSD - Sep 2022 (M6EU2), NZDUSD - Sep 2022 (NEU2), EURCHF - Sep 2022 (RFU2), EURGBP - Sep 2022 (RPU2), EURJPY - Sep 2022 (RYU2), SEKUSD - Sep 2022 (SEU2), CHFUSD - Sep 2022 (SFU2) will expire 16th Sep 15:00 GMT
GER50MIDSEP22 will expire 14th Sep at 8:00 GMT
AUDUSDADSEP22, EURCHFRFSEP22, EURJPYRYSEP22, EURUSDECSEP22, GBPUSDBPSEP22 will expire 14th Sep at 15:00 GMT
USDINDEXSEP22 will expire 15th Sep at 15:00 GMT
US2000SEP22 will expire 16th Sep 8:00 GMT
OILUSOCT22 will expire 16th Sep 15:00 GMT
Thursday, Sep 15
US: Jobless claims (weekly)
US: Retail sales (Aug)
US: Philly Fed manufacturing survey (Sep)
US: Empire State manufacturing survey (Sep)
US: Industrial production (Aug)
US: Business inventories (Jul)
Japan: Trade data (Aug)
Japan: Tertiary industry activity index (Jul)
Australia: Unemployment rate (Aug)
UK: Bank of England decision (Sep)
Eurozone: ECB’s Centeno speaks
Indonesia: Trade data
New Zealand: Real GDP (Q2)
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.