Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off inflation NOT topping
Good Morning
A Higher than feared CPI sparked US Rates to jump higher to above 3.4% and caused risk aversion across the board. The USD Index jumped to near 110 again and Equities sold off. Core Inflation rose 6.3% from 5.9% in July showing more persistence than hoped.
US Indexes suffered the biggest loss in 2 years with the Nasdaq down more than 5% and the Dow and S&P near 4%, the GHER40 fell from above 13400 to now 13085.
GBPUSD dropped to 1.15 and EURUS fell to below parity again, USDJPY rose to 143.90. Bitcoin is at 20300 again. Gold dropped to 1702 and Silver is at 19.30.
There is now a 63% probability of a 0.75% hike and the remaining 37% are in favor of a 1% hike – no longer 0.5%. that is the cause of market the market turmoil.
The PPI today at 14:30 will be closely watched for a confirmation that the measures so far cannot control inflation. Ex Food and energy s expected at 7.1% and the PPI Final demand at 8.8%.
UK Cpi came just below 10% versus an expectation of just above.
The Bank of Japan is preparing for an intervention in the FX markets acc to Reuters, the news pushed the rate from testing 145 more than 100 pips lower.
Google is the center of a European court ruling where a 4.4 bio fine is at stake.
Be on the high alert for still exceedingly nervous markets.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
US Dollar Index - Sep 2022 (DXU2) will expire 16th Sep at 9:00 GMT
GBPUSD - Sep 2022 (BPU2), E-mini EURUSD - Sep 2022 (E7U2), EURUSD - Sep 2022 (ECU2), JPYUSD - Sep 2022 (JYU2), E-micro EURUSD - Sep 2022 (M6EU2), NZDUSD - Sep 2022 (NEU2), EURCHF - Sep 2022 (RFU2), EURGBP - Sep 2022 (RPU2), EURJPY - Sep 2022 (RYU2), SEKUSD - Sep 2022 (SEU2), CHFUSD - Sep 2022 (SFU2) will expire 16th Sep 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
GER50MIDSEP22 will expire 14th Sep at 8:00 GMT
AUDUSDADSEP22, EURCHFRFSEP22, EURJPYRYSEP22, EURUSDECSEP22, GBPUSDBPSEP22 will expire 14th Sep at 15:00 GMT
USDINDEXSEP22 will expire 15th Sep at 15:00 GMT
US2000SEP22 will expire 16th Sep 8:00 GMT
OILUSOCT22 will expire 16th Sep 15:00 GMT
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
Economic Data
US: PPI (Aug)
Japan: Core machine orders (Jul)
UK: CPI (Aug)
UK: RPI (Aug)
UK: PPI (Aug)
Eurozone: Industrial production (Jul)
India: WPI (Aug)
New Zealand: Current account balance (Q2)
Hong Kong: Industrial production (Q2)
Hong Kong: PPI (Q2)
Thursday, Sep 15
US: Jobless claims (weekly)
US: Retail sales (Aug)
US: Philly Fed manufacturing survey (Sep)
US: Empire State manufacturing survey (Sep)
US: Industrial production (Aug)
US: Business inventories (Jul)
Japan: Trade data (Aug)
Japan: Tertiary industry activity index (Jul)
Australia: Unemployment rate (Aug)
UK: Bank of England decision (Sep)
Eurozone: ECB’s Centeno speaks
Indonesia: Trade data
New Zealand: Real GDP (Q2)
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist