Morning Brew September 1 2023

Good Morning,

UBS Delivers a strong rise yesterday closing at 23.50. Kim featured it in his technical corner yesterday.

As the Key data yesterday was basically in line with expectations, trading lacked inspiration and Indexes were little moved at the end. S&P and Dow gave up a little ground while the Nasdaq could close in the green supported by Salesforce and Amazon. The US 500 remains above 45   and the GER40 is testing the 16000. 

Yields were relatively case as well with the 10 year meandering the 4.10, the USD Index saw a relief rally off the 200 day moving average and dovish ECB comments. It is now at 103.60 while EURUSD fell to 1.0845 GBPUSD 1.2670 and USDJPY 145.50. Gold and Silver are taking a breather at 1940 and 24.45.

Bitcoin fell back to 26k as the SEC delays a decision on Crypto ETF

Yesterday the probability of a September hike by the ECB was close to 50%, now it is near 25% after ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said the decision for the September meeting was still open.

China adjusts policies to balance property market and banking sector challenges.

1. Lowering interest rates on outstanding mortgages to slow prepayment.
2. Standardizing down payment ratios nationwide.
3. Guangzhou and Shenzhen expanding the first-home buyer eligibility
4. Policies seek stability, consumption boost, cautious optimism in outcomes

Today we are expecting the Swiss CPI at 8:30, various PMI but he key will be the US Data at 14:30 CET:

• Non-Farm Payrolls expected at 170k
• Unemplyment 3.5%
• Average earnings 0.3%

This should dominate the start into September. Trade safely