Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 1 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US Labour data at 14:30 key for the start into September


Good Morning,

UBS Delivers a strong rise yesterday closing at 23.50. Kim featured it in his technical corner yesterday.

As the Key data yesterday was basically in line with expectations, trading lacked inspiration and Indexes were little moved at the end. S&P and Dow gave up a little ground while the Nasdaq could close in the green supported by Salesforce and Amazon. The US 500 remains above 45   and the GER40 is testing the 16000. 

Yields were relatively case as well with the 10 year meandering the 4.10, the USD Index saw a relief rally off the 200 day moving average and dovish ECB comments. It is now at 103.60 while EURUSD fell to 1.0845 GBPUSD 1.2670 and USDJPY 145.50. Gold and Silver are taking a breather at 1940 and 24.45.

Bitcoin fell back to 26k as the SEC delays a decision on Crypto ETF

Yesterday the probability of a September hike by the ECB was close to 50%, now it is near 25% after ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said the decision for the September meeting was still open.

China adjusts policies to balance property market and banking sector challenges.

  1. Lowering interest rates on outstanding mortgages to slow prepayment.
  2. Standardizing down payment ratios nationwide.
  3. Guangzhou and Shenzhen expanding the first-home buyer eligibility
  4. Policies seek stability, consumption boost, cautious optimism in outcomes

Today we are expecting the Swiss CPI at 8:30, various PMI but he key will be the US Data at 14:30 CET:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls expected at 170k
  • Unemplyment 3.5%
  • Average earnings 0.3%

This should dominate the start into September. Trade safely

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.