Morning Brew November 6 2023

Good Morning

lower nonfarm Payroll, lower average earnings and a higher unemployment rate confirmed the Fed`s higher for a little less long narrative, and causing a stellar week for equities, The S&P added 5.9%, the Dow 5.1% and the Nasdaq 6.6%. the GER40 added 4%.

Volumes were high at 12 bio shares traded in the US, 10% above the 20day average.

10 year yields closed the week at 4.57. as the forward projections tumble: a 50 Basis Point Cut is priced in in July 2024 and by December it is 150 acc to Refintiv Data. The ECB is the first of the big central banks expected to cut rates – early in Q2 2024.

The USD Index fell to a six week low, the USD Index to the lowest level since September and closed at 105.06, only on Wednesday it was testing the 107. EURUSD was 1.0735, GBPUSD 1.2385 and USDJPY 149.50. Gold and Silver rose to 1992 and 23.20, now 1983 and 23.13. . Bitcoin remains near 35k.

Oil lost app 5% last week

• Israel rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, with military specialists saying that forces are set to intensify their operations against Hamas.
• DBS reports higher earnings, Ryanair forecasts a record annual profit
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ended the third quarter with a record cash and reported a higher net loss due to the sputtering stock market rally
• Russia as well as Saudi Arabia should continue their Oil production cuts.
• South Korea is making Headlines by announcing a short selling ban until June.
• Tesla is raising wages by 4% in Germany
• Gold Funds increased their holding sby a million Oz on Friday

The coming week will be an interesting one to see if lower yields boost risk sentiment or if fear of a hard landing cause fear. We expect data of second rate importance but a good deal of earnings as well as central bank speakers, Powell on Wednesday is likely to be key.

Monday

Data: DE Industrial Orders, France PMI, DE PMI, EU PMI; UK PMI,
Earnings: Itochu, Vertex, DBS,
Lisa Cook speaks

Tuesday

Data: China Trade, AU Rate decision, DE Industrial Output, UK House Prices, CH Forex reserves, US International Trade,
Earnings: Enel, Nintendo, NTT, Gilead, Occidental Petroleum, Uber, UBS, APD, Emerson. l

Michael Barr, Christopher Walker, John Williams, Lorie Logan speak

Wednesday

Data:DE HICP,
Earnings: Airbus, Munich Re, Softbank, Walt Disney, ARM, Siemens Healthliner

Jerome Powell, John Willian, Lisa Cook, Miahael Barr, and Philip Jefferson speak

Thursday

Data:Japan Trade Balance, China CPI & PPI, US Initial Jpobless claims.
Earnings: National Bank of Australia, Sony, Merck, Honda, AstrasZeneca, Brookfield, Deutshce Telecom,

Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin speak

Friday

Data:UK GDP, Norway CPI,
Earnings: Allianz, Financiere Richement, Tokyo Electron

Lorie Loagan & Bostic speak