Morning Brew December 28 2023

Good Morning

Yesterday`s session was fairly dull to be honest, many traders were apparently busy with Cyber Monday shopping – volumes were a good 10% below average and moves overall minute. The big three remained within 0.2% move. Online shopping and payment platforms gained with affirm up 12%, Shopify 4.9% and Etsy 3%.

US Yields trade lower, the 10 year is 4.38, the USD Index remains slightly aboe the 103. Kim pointed out the next key levels yesterday: The Dollar Index key support at around 103 seems likely to be tested once again. A close below there is no strong support until around 101.62
The 0.618 retracement at around 102.21 will offer some support, however a close above 104.12 will demolish the bearish picture and a close above 104.44 is likely to result in a trend reversal.

EURUSD is now 1.0950, GBPUSD 1.2620 and USDJPY 148.40. Gold broke the 2015 to trade at 2016 and Silver is at 24.65.

Peter wrote on the Megacaps: This strong relative outperformance in less than a year should make investors reducing their expectation of more outperformance for mega caps. 

Althea on UK Gilts:  Bets for the Bank of England to increasingly become dovish might have run too far. Since summer, two-year Gilt yields have dropped the most compared to the US and European peers.

Looking ahead, todays agenda is light in earnings and Data but there are a few Fed speakers as well as the US Debt Auction. The US Consumer Confidence at 1600 is the only significant data point.

Tomorrow, the German CPI and the US GDP will be important but the PCE on Thursday should make or break he week, I also expect some month end position adjustments ahead of the month end. As Volatility remains at the lows, consider taking any speculative positions with options. 

Upcoming Events:

Tuesday
- Data:  AU Retail Sales, US Consumer Confidence,

- Earnings Vantage Towers, Bank of Nova Scotia, Intuit, Workday, HP, NetApp,

Wednesday
- Data  EU Consumer Confidence, Germany CPI, US GDP 2^nd Estimate
- Earnings Snowflake, Okta, Pure Storage, Dollar Tree,

Thursday
- Data China PMI, Norway GDP, Swiss KOF , France CPI, Germany Unemployment, EU Inflation, US PCE & Initial Jobless Claims, Canada GDP
- Earnings Royal Bank of Canada, Dell, Marvell

Friday
- Data Japan Unemployment Rate, China Caixin PMI, International PMI, Canada Unemployment rate
- Earnings National Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal,

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

MGCZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

FLGZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

GCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

HGZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

KEZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

SILZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

SIZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

TNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

TTFMZ3 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 10:00 GMT

UBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

XCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

XWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

Z3NZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZBZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZCZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZFZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZLZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZMZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZNZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZTZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

ZWZ3 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

HOZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

RBZ3 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

10YUSTNOTEDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

30YUSTBONDDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

COPPERUSDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

CORNDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

GASOLINEUSDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

GOLDDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

HEATINGOILDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

SILVERDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

SOYBEANMEALDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

WHEATDEC23 will expire 28 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

CHINA50NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT

HK50NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT

TAIWAN95NOV23 will expire 29 Nov 2023 at 02:00 GMT

LIVECATTLEDEC23 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT

OILUKJAN24 will expire 30 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT