Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Sentiment blinked but back on track today
Good Morning,
After a lower than feared PPI yesterday, risk sentiment took a hit yesterday when a rocket struck Poland. There are strong indications that was not fired by Russia but by accident from Ukraine.
As expected, Donald Trump announced to run in the 2024 election.
In yesterday’s session, the Dow gained 0.17%, the S&P 5000.87% and the Nasdaq 1.45%. Walmart jumped 6.5% after the company lifted its annual sales and profit forecasts.
Tesla reports two new crash fatalities to advanced driver assistance systems in October
The USD Index is now trading 106.50, 10 Year yields are at 3.85.
EURUSD is at 1.0380, GBPUSD at 1.1860 USDJPY 139.80. Gold 1774 and Silver 21.60 and Bitcoin 16878.
The UK CPI came at more than 11% against an expectation of 10.70% confirming the difficult place Britain is in, this is a 41 year high. . This afternoon, we will see the US retail sales and import prices as well as the Canadian CPI.
Earnings from Tencent and Nvidia will be closely watched and the outlook given by the companies will give insight on the tech industry.
Key driver remains the expectation that US Inflation may have peaked, that would support risk in next days, anything confirming or contradicting will have an impact.
As we saw yesterday, the political situation remains fragile and caution is a good advisor.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.