Morning Brew November 15 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quo Vadis
Traders and investors had a bit if a hard time digesting the strong rise in risk sentiment last week, profit taking, coupled with the limited fallout of the FTX collapse, News Amazon will cut staff and comments from Fed speakers on the likely path from here.
Indexes gave up a little ground yesterday and the Dow fell by 0.63%, S&P 500 by 0.89%, Nasdaq by 1.12%, over night we see them rise again and the US 500 is at 3977, the USTECH100 at 11.800 and the GER 40 14333.
US 10 year rates are trading below 3.90 and the Terminal Rate remains at 4.90 (in May/June 2023)
The USDINDEX EURUSD is just below 107 as EURUSD 1.0330. USDJPY 140.30 and GBPUSD at 1.1780. Gold and Silver are high at 1770 and 22.
Bitcoin seems to stabilize above 16k and is currently trading at 16700.
The direction from here will depend on ne next key data points, today the EU GDP a, the German ZEW US PPI expected at 8.3% , tomorrow the UK CPI/ PPI, US Retail Sales and Canada`s inflation.
Thursday the EU HICP expected at 10.7% and Friday the UK Retail sales.
The G20 has the potential to deliver possible surprises and Donald Trump has announced an important announcement for today where it is expected he will announce his running for the presidency again in 2024 – Even though he is the clear loser of the midterms.
- Tuesday: Infineon Technologies, Vodafone, Alcon, Walmart, Home Depot, Sea Ltd
- Wednesday: Siemens Energy, Tencent, Experian, SSE, Nibe Industrier, Nvidia, Cisco, Lowe’s, TJX, Target
- Thursday: Siemens, Alibaba, Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, NetEase
- Friday: JD.com
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week has to defend his $56 billion pay package against shareholder allegations it was rigged.
- Roche's Alzheimer's drug fails to meet goal
Latest Market Insights
Q4 Outlook 2022: Winter is coming
- Winter is coming to the financial markets as central banks are tightening their grip. How spring will look is still a question.
European energy crisis: it will get worse before it gets betterThe winter in Europe will be tough, but whether the result is political chaos or sustainable, innovative solutions is still undecided.
A difficult and volatile quarter awaitsAs the year draws to an end, commodities continue to be at centre stage of the world with growth pockets political uncertainty.
The bright side: crises drive innovationThe positive spin on crises is that they come with solutions. It is worrisome that deglobalisation may be a response to this crisis.
Green transformation in China: renewable energy and beyondGoing green, China needs to span numerous energy sources to ensure stability, as every source comes with a challenge.
Asia: Intermittent solutions, but a faster renewable adoption curveAsian energy supply is being squeezed. This and the adoption of renewables may change the investment sentiment in the region.
FX: A Fed thaw needed to deliver a sustained USD turn lowerThe US Dollar can keep momentum when the Federal Reserve continues to tighten, leaving the rest to play to their drum.
Autumn can become ugly for equities and bond holders. Comfort for Dollar longsTechnical analysis suggests that equities could face a tough Q4 as could fixed income. US Dollar positions could provide some upside.
The next stock market sector to watch, with stocks going nuclearAs the world scrambles to find affordable, sustainable energy, nuclear is getting attention from politicians and investors alike.
The crypto space is getting cold when the hype disappearsCryptocurrencies face a winter of their own as retail investors and governments are asking tough questions.