Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 13 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US CPI out today - Who cares?


Good morning,

It looks like the Trump Trade is facing a showdown between yields and stocks. Increased spending and less regulation boosts equities but also fuels inflation and causes rising yields. With the 2 year at 4.35 and the 10 year at 4.44, stocks seem to feel pressure, the US dollar gets boosted .

Today we are expecting the US Consumer Price Index at 14:30 CET. The CPI is seen at 2.6%, the Core at 3.3%. The big question will be if the focus will be on this data point of on any announcement by the Team Trump.

Donald Trump announced Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the Department of Government Efficiency, with the aim to "drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach", Fox host Pete Hegseth will be Secretary of Defence. He is a vet having served in Afghanistan.

Fed speakers basically said the Fed was still somewhat restrictive but ready to act if necessary.

European gave up 2% as the ECB expressed worries, increased tariffs would hamper global growth, also Ford announced to cut working hours to every other week at the cologne facility. The Dax is seen at around 19000. The Nikkei also gives up 2%.

US indexes traded lower as well, the Dow lost 0.85%, the S&P 500 0.3% the Nasdaq 0.1% and the Russel gave up 1.8%. Volumes remained high at above 15 billion shares.

Tesla lost 6% but remains up 35% since the election, Amgen gave up 6% on possible issues with it`s weight loss drug.

The USD Index is trading at 106, EURUSD 1.0610, USDJPY 155, GBPUSD 1.2740 and Gold and Silver 2605 and 30.85. For now, the key supports in Gold and Silver seem to have held but the longer uptrend remains at risk is there is more downside.

Bitcoin it taking a breath at 86700 having looked above the 90k yesterday.

In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy and Head of Fixed Income, Althea Spinozzi to take the temperature of the markets one week removed from the US election. They dive deep into how bond markets, Bitcoin craze and the newly called German election.

Listen to the full episode now or follow Saxo Market

Pls see the shortlist for the Trump Trade here

Highlights are: Transport & Logistics, Financials, Energy and small caps

Key events

Wednesday
- Data US CPI,
- Earnings:  Cisco,
- Logan, Musalem, Schmid, speak

Thursday
- Data Sweden CPI, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, PPI
- Earnings: Disney, JD.com
- Barkin, Kugler, Powell speak

Friday
- Data JP GDP, UK GDP, US Retail Sales
- Earnings, Alibaba

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.