Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 24 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  High PMI causes nervousness - ETH ETF approved

Good morning,

Nvidia closed the day up more than 9% yesterday but even that failed to keep the big indexes green. A surprisingly strong Purchasing Manager Index let inflation fears rise. Yesterday, a full rate cut was priced in by November, that is no longer the case, we are only at 21 basis points. 10 year Yields rose to near 4.5% and Indexes sold off. The Dow was the largest loser at 1.5%, the S&P 500 -0.75% and the Nasdaq -0.4%. The Dow was pulled lower by Boeing, where quality issues are having an impact and the company sees a negative free cash flow for 2024, stocks lose 7.5%.

The USD Index rose to above 105 on the strong PMI, EURUSD is 1.0810, GBPUSD 1.2690, USDJPY is above 157 again after low inflaltion. Gold and Silver are at 2338 and 30.50.

The SEC has approved eight Ether ETF, so far with disappointing impact – it is a buy the rumor and don’t yet buy the fact situation. ETHUSD is at 3750, up 0.1% on the day but 7% on the week, 18 the month and 65 the year. Let us see how it continues.

UK Retail sales just came in much worse than expected at -2.3% vs -0.4% expected, this sets an interesting stage for the general election in early July and shows the UK economy is really in a horrible place.

With most of the recent market movers off the extremes (except for Nvidia) it will be interesting what the next big driver will be.

There is certainly a lot of scenarios to choose from:

  • Lack of clarity causing a sideways grind
  • Geopolitics (Middle East, China)
  • Rising cost of debt in the US strangling the economy
  • Inflation higher, causing a hawkish reaction
  • Labor market tipping, giving the Fed room to maneuver.
  • Commodity shortage causing short squezes or lack of demand causing a slump.

With today’s agenda fairly void of interesting items, it will either be a quiet day, or we will see sharp moves. Keep an eye on Ethereum, as I doubt that it makes sense that there is no real move due to the ETF approval, even if ther is still some time before the actual start of trading

Also, the Chinese War games around Taiwan are likely to cause nervousness as a statement by the PLA says the exercises are to test the ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks and occupy key areas.

Trade safely!

- Data Japan CPI, DE GDP, UK Retai Sales, US Durable Goods & Michigan Sentiment, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings: Dollar Tree Inc



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.