Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 22 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good morning,

Nvidia earnings and the Fed Minutes will be the focus of attention, that means we have the potential for a nervous day.

The Nvidia earnings after the bell today are key, option traders price in a swing of almost 9% or the equivalent of USD 200 billion of market capitalization. The stock now has a weighting of over 5% in the S&P 500, 6.5% of the Nasdaq 100 and 20% of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. The release is the focus of our market podcast HERE. Besides the earnings, a hint of a stock split will also be watched for.

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day already with Indexes moving higher by a small margin, The US 30 keeps the 40k in sight at 39875, the US500 5322, and GER40 and the US tech 100 NAS are both at 18730. Biggest major outliers yesterday were Tesla up 6.6% and Macy`s up 5.1%

Yields are little changed at 4.42 for the 10-year and the USD Index 104.65. EURUSD is 1.0853, GBPUSD 1.2708 and USDJPY 156.36. Gold and Silver are taking a break at 2413 and 31.70. Silver needs to break the 32.50 for more upside potential according to Ole Hansen. Bitcoin recedes below the 70k but Ethereum is up 27% on the week at 3755.

Today I expect a bit of choppy trading, as the  elephant in the room is clearly Nvidia, the Fed Minutes will only have a meaningful impact, if there is a major surprise, which is doubtful. The large issue is that inflation remains too high for the Fed to lower rates with a good conscience. We need either lower inflation or stress in the labor market, that will not show until earliest next week when the PCE is released, or the Nonfarm Payroll early June.

Trade safely.

Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade Data, UK CPI, Fed Minutes,  Bostic & Golsbee speak
- Earnings: NVIDIA, Snowflake, Target Corp,

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate Decision US Initial Jobless Claims, EU Consumer
- Earnings: Meituan, Xiaomi Workday
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, DE GDP, UK Retail Sales, US Durable Goods & Michigan Sentiment, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings: Dollar Tree Inc

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.