Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: AI Drives Google
Good Morning
The US CPI came lower than expected and initially drove the USD Lower but that was fairly short lived. The CPI came 0,1% lower than expected in the core as well as the overall annual number at 5.4% and 4.9%. Comments that while inflation was slowing, the current levels would not allow for rate cuts let the USD gain again. The USD Index fell from 101.80 to 101.20 after the release only to gain back to 101.50 as of now. Precious Metals also rallied initially but lost the gains again, Gold is not 2030 and Silver 25.27.
Equities gained with the Nasdaq especially strong after Alphabet presented it`s AI augmented search, Alphabet rose 4.1% and pulled tech higher overall, apple and Microsoft also gained more than 1% each. The line in the sand remains the 4200 in the US 500.
We are seeing a fairly interesting structure in rates where rate traders are now pricing in 75 bps in cuts by the fed until December. It is not easy to align that with 4.9% inflation and rising wages and low unemployment. Something needs to change in this setup with one side being significantly and expensively wrong.
Today we are expecting the next rate hike by the Bank of England to 4.5%, likely with a 7 to 2 vote and otherwise no key data.
The debt ceiling and US politics are likely a key driver and overall insecurity seems to be rising with traders and investors unsure about the next driver to push markets either way.
Today: : Data: China CPI and PPI, UK Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims and PPI Machine Manufacturing,
Earnings: JD.COM, IONQ, Getty Images,
Friday:
Data: UK GDP, France CPI, US Import Prices, University of Michigan Confidence.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.