Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Consolidation time - until tomorrow?
Good Morning,
Jerome Powell maintained his stance yesterday at the second day of his hearing and markets remained fairly calm with the three US Indexes rise but all less than 0.5%. The CME sees the probability of a 50 BPS hike in March at 68% , 2 year yields are 5.05% now and the USD Index remains high at 105.60, EURUSD is 1.0550, GBPUSD 1.1855 and USD JPY 136.70. Gold and Silver are 1815 and 20.05.
The Ger40 is rather strong, since Tuesday the US 500 remains 1.5% loser while the German Index only trades 0.06% lower. The Swiss SMI looks vulnerable on a technical level but it closed just above key support at 10.994.
Chinese Data showed lower inflation over night with the PPI falling more than expected and the CPI rose 0.9% less then expected and the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged as it sees inflationary pressures easing. The Loonie traded at the lowest level since October 2022.
Tomorrows Nonfarm Payroll is coming into strong focus as it is the first real data point to signal 50 or 25 basis points on March 22nd. The expectation is at 205k added jobs after the 517k reported last month – which caused the sharp move towards higher rates in the US The highest estimate acc to Refinitiv is 325 and the lowest 79.
Remain cautious and expect sharp moves tomorrow at the nonfarm payroll.
Thursday
Data: Japan GDP, China PPI, CPI, US Initial Jobless claims
Earnings Wheaton Precious Metals Ulta Beauty Hannover Rueck Deutsche Post PRADA Contemporary Amperex
Friday
Data: DE HICP, UK GDP,US Nonfarm Payrolls,
Earnings: Daimler Truck Holding DiDi Global Inc ZTE BNP Oracle JD.com
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023
FPH3 will expire 09 Mar 2023
ADH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
BPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
DXH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
E7H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
ECH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
JGB1H3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
JYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
M6AH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
M6BH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
M6EH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
M6JH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
MPH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
MSFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
NEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
NOH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
PJYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
RFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
RPH will expire 10 Mar 2023
RYH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
SEH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
SFH3 will expire 10 Mar 2023
Expiring CFDs
USDINDEXMAR23 will expire 09 Mar 2023
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy