Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 28 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Easter, Quarter End, PCE and Powell - calm or volatile?


Good morning,

We will be back on Tuesday the 2nd of April – enjoy a great relaxing holiday and good fun on Aprils Fools Day and don`t miss the change in Daylight Savings Time.
Most Importantly, if you are a trader and not an investor, check the trading hours of the instrument you trade and make sure you know when you can or cannot trade it.

Go to: https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/stocks/trading-conditions

Then please select the asset class you are interested on and look at the holiday schedule in the bottom of the page or look in the trading conditions. Today most of Skandinavia is already closed… 

Looking at markets they seem almost too quiet considering we are heading into quarter end and a long weekend with key data in a closed market. That shows to me that there is little conviction on where to go from these levels.

Indexes closed higher yesterday with Dow up 1.2%, the S&P500 up 0.9% but the Nasdaq weighed by Nvidia and only gained 0.4%. The Dax is near 18500 and the Nikkei above 40k. The Dow is less than 1% away from the 40.000 and may try to end the Quarter above?

Yields changed little and FX is a bit curious where the Japanese are attempting the JPY stronger but with so little conviction that no one really buys into it. As the Japanese are one of the few markets open tomorrow, they may look at a real intervention then?

Right now, the US 10-year Yields are at 4.20, the USD Index 104.35 EURUSD 1.0820, GBPUSD 1.2629, USDJPY 151.33 and Gold and Silver at an interesting 2197 and 24.60. Remember that Gold and Silver will not be trading tomorrow!

In the short term, there are many sources of volatility from data and the quarter ultimo, heading into Q2, I am looking forward to what our Strats see as the main topics, but I am fairly certain rates, AI, the US Elections and US Debt will be among them.

For today, consider how much risk you want to carry over the Easter holiday considering the US PCE will be released tomorrow and Jerome Powell will be speaking as well.

Thursday

- Data Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims, University of Michigan sentiment

 Friday

- Data Japan CPI, France CPI, Swiss FX reserves, US PCE
 

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