Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk on towards the weekend - will it hold?
Good Morning,
The ECB hiked by 50 Basis points yesterday and displayed confidence the banking system while in the US several banks joined ranks and extended loans to First Republic. First Republic could gain 10% at the close of the day after heavy losses. In extended trading First Republic fell again.
Equities are trading higher overall. The Dow rose 371.98 points, or 1.17%, to 32,246.55, the S&P 500 gained 68.35 points, or 1.76% the GER 40 is now at 15040 and 2.6% than yesterday’s low.
Meta and Snap also rose sharply on a possible ban of TikTok in the US:
US 2 year yields are at 4.15 and the USD Index is back near 104. With EURUSD at 1.0650, GBPUSD 1.2160 and 132.94. USDCHF is trading at 0.9265.
Gold and Silver remain high at 1928 and 21.90. Oil prices rebounded app. 1% after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets
Sanofi will cut the price for it`s insulin by almost 80% in 2024.
Today we expect little in terms of key economic data and will focus will be on sentiment in risk. Next weeks FOMC meeting is the next big thing to know more about the Feds view on inflation and the need to act, also the blackout period for the Fed will end and we will see comments from fed speakers on the turmoil again.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.