Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew March 15 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets calmer ahead of Retail Sales and PPI at 13:30
Good Morning,
Remember that we are heading into the quadruple witching Friday
In a glass half full interpretation the CPI in line with expectation fueled risk sentiment and let stocks rise. The Dow closed up 1.1%, the S&P 1.7% and the Nasdaq 2.14%, the GER40 is at 15235.
The expectation for next weeks FOMC is in favor of 25 bps with now 80% probability and 20 for no action, peak rate is seen at 4.95 and in December 4.35 is being traded. The 2 Year yield is at 4.3 after testing below 3.9% yesterday.
The USD Index calmed down at 103.70, EURUSD 1.0735, GBPUSD 1.2150 and USDJPY 134.60. Bitcoin soared to 26k yesterday to consolidate at 25k now, Gold and Silver remain 1900 and 21.75 .
Next to news around the banking crisis where the focus was on assertions the matter would be contained, Meta announced 10,000 job cuts in its second round of layoffs. Its stock advanced 7.3%, Shares of First Republic Bank and Western Alliance Bancorp rose by 27% and 14%, Credit Suisse traded in wild swings from 2.12 to 2.30 and closed at 2.24.
Chinas Urban Investment came higher over night at 5.5% vs 4.4% expected and todays focus will be the French CPI at 8:45, the EU Production and the US PPI and Retail Sales at 13:30
Trade safely.
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