Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key day - Watch US Data at 14:30CET to make or break the week
Good Morning,
Today is starting to look like a crucial day for traders. As our Steen Jacobsen points out, it is uncommon that there is a very strong market move ahead of key data and yesterday was certainly an outlier:
Yesterday, the US Bank index fell 6.6% on issues at SVB. The Bank announced a share sale to boost it`s balance sheet after suffering heavy losses in a bond portfolio. and the group lost 60? of value. This dragged indexes lower overall and the Dow fell 1.85%, the S&P 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 2.05%. Shares of crypto-focused companies fell as well after Silvergate Capital Corp announced to wind down operations. Bitcoin fell below 20 again.
The Dow broke support at 32.550… and with RSI below 40 indicating a short position is confirmed.The US500 has broken the 200d MA to the downside and it will be key to see where we end the week. The Swiss SMI broke below support as outlined here. 10,659 is key support ahead of the 10.000 level.
Our Peter Garnry put out an interesting article on Tesla and the heat pump market, nevertheless Tesla lost 5%, Netflix 4.5%, Nvidia 3%.
US 10 year yields fall to below 5% on demand for safety to now trade at 4.8%. The probability of a 50 BPS hike has fallen to 50% from 80 yesterday.
The USD Index falls to 105.30 with EURUSD at 1.0580, GBPUSD at 1.1940 and USDJPY 136.70. CHF rises against USD as well as EUR to 92.90 and 98.40.
Gold and Silver remain undecided, at 1831 and 20.03, pls see our Kim Cramers technical outlook here
The key today will be the Nonfarm payroll and the big question on it`s effect on sentiment. Traders will watch:
Think hard on how much risk you want to carry in to a day like today and trade safely
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.