Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nvidia rules the world
Good morning
Nvidia rules the world! Yesterday the Market Cap broke above 3 trillion US dollars and Nvidia is now worth more than Apple. The stock is up 147% this year and now worth more than 6% of the S&P. Yesterdays Volume in the stock was nearly as high as the next 9 stocks combined. Yesterday the stock gained 5% to 1226.
Yields fell, further assisting equities, and we had a strong day with the Dow up 0.25%, the S&P 500 +1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 +2.04. The Nasdaq 100 broke the 19k! The GER40 is at 18640, approaching the top end of the range.
10 Year Yields are at 4.3% and the USD Index at 104.15. EURUSD 1.0885, GBPUSD 1.2795 and USDJPY 155.80. The USD Index has technical support at 104, it will be interesting to see if we close the week above of below.
Bitcoin seems to stabilize above the 70k Ethereum is trading at 3850. Gold and Silver rose off the lows, to currently 23368 and 30.40. Oil also gained more than full percent.
The Bank of Canada cut rates yesterday as the first among the G7, today traders are betting the ECB will do the same with a probability of 96% and the focus will be on the press conference by Christine Lagarde. The rate will be released at 14:15, 30 minutes later the press conference will start.
The weeks close will be decided by how ECB and tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll (and accompanying data) come out and how they impact sentiment.
The election for the European parliament are starting today and running until Sunday.
Key Data:
Thursday
- Data: DE Industrial Orders, ECB Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims.
- Earnings: Nio, DocuSign, Samsara, Meituan
Friday
- Data: CH FX Reserves, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll