Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 5 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Bank of Canada first G7 Central Bank to cut?

Good morning

Today at 15:45, Canada could be the first among the G7 to cut rates this cycle. Rate traders price in a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 80%. Inflation in Canada remains above the target at 2.7%

Besides the Canadian Rate decision, Global PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) will be released with Sweden 8:30, Italy 9:45,  France 9:50, Germany 9:55 EU 10:00, UK 10:30 US 15:45. The Chinese Services PMI came strong at 54 in the night.

Yesterday, indexes traded slightly higher but remain in the range, the Dow closed up 0.36%, the S&P + 0.15%, the Nasdaq +0.17% Overall volumes were 20% below the average.

Oil and Oil stocks traded lower yesterday , tech again friendly, Nvidia rose to 1164. Hindenburg Research identified a new short-target with Axos Financial, the stocks fell 4.2%.

10 Year Yields are at 4.34 after trading at 30 basis points higher just a week ago, the USD Index is a little above yesterday's level at 104.26, EURUSD could not hold above 1.09 and fell to 1.0872 GBPUSD is at 1.2765, USDJPY 155.75. Gold and Silver sold off yesterday and are at 2320 and 29.55.

Kim took a look at the possible targets of the selloff in metals yesterday:

  • Gold holding on above key support. If broken, sell-off to 2,220 in the cards
  • Silver double top pattern unfolding with bearish target to 28.50, maybe even 26
  • Platinum testing key support around 1,015. Bearish move can push it to 974
  • Copper correction eyeing support at 446. Will it hold?

Peter and Soren discussed the implications of the ECB decision for Equities

Heading into central bank cycle, we are feeling the uncertainty among market participants:
If central banks cut rates, is that interpreted as supportive or as a sign that markets are in real trouble?

Every data point is being benchmarked against this uncertainty and makes trading tricky. Be careful, consider employing optionality and trade safely!

- Data: International PMI, Bank of Canada Rate decision
- Earnings: Brown-Forman, Lululemon, Dollar Tree Campbell

- Data: DE Industrial Orders, ECB Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims.
- Earnings: Nio, DocuSign, Samsara, Meituan

- Data: CH FX Reserves, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll




The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.