Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Morning Brew June 3 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Busy Start into June this Week
Good morning to a busy June!
On Friday we saw quite heavy position adjustments into late trading. Equities soared and Precious metals were sold off.
The Dow ended up 1.51%, S&P 500 up 0.8%, Nasdaq down 0.01%, the Dow made its biggest daily percentage gain since last November as month-end repositioning drove a late sharp rally acc to Reuters. Volume spiked into the close, 14.6 billion shares were traded in the US vs an average 2 billion lower. the Month, the S&P 500 gained almost 5%, the Nasdaq nearly 7% and the Dow app. 2,5%. So far, the start into June looks friendly with the US500 at 5293, the US30 at 38800, the USTECH2100NAS 18460 and the GER40 at 18670. Hong Kong shares gain 2%
Silver rose to almost 32 after the PCE and was then sold to nearly 30 but held the monthly close above 30 for the first time in 11 years. We are currently at 30 and Gold is trading at 2320.
The PCE was released mostly in line with expectations on Friday but the Chicago PMI dropped to its lowest since May 2020 at 35.4. Ten year Yields dropped to below 4.50 and the USD Index wo 104.62. EURUSD is 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.2730 and USDJPY 157.20.
Opec+ announced to keep most production cuts in place well into 2025 as the price of crude is not where many of the members need it to be. There is so far no great impact on oil prices yet.
We saw some saber rattling out of China towards Taiwan over the weekend, but traders seem not worried, let us hope they are right.
Nvidia and AMD announced new AI Chips over the weekend, the shares are worth watching.
This week, the key events are likely to be the ECB Rate decision (and press conference) on Thursday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and PMI from all over the world, the Bank of Canada will announce rated on Wednesday. There will be no US central Bank speakers this week as we have entered the blackout period ahead of next weeks FOMC meeting.
We have lots of potential for volatility this week, stay alert.
Monday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Inflation
Tuesday
- Data DE Unemployment
- Earnings: Ferguson, Crowdstrike, HP,
Wednesday
- Data, International PMI, Bank of Canada Rate decision
- Earnings: Brown-Forman, Lululemon, Dollar Tree Campbell
Thursday
- Data DE Industrial Orders, ECB Rate decision, US Initial Jobless claims.
- Earnings:Nio, DocuSign, Samsara, Meituan
Friday
- Data CH FX Reserves, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll
- Earnings:
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.