Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Yesterday the rise in equities stalled after higher than expected PPI and lower than expected retail sales number in the US, basically indexes gave up earlier gains. Dax retreated to 15738 after failing at the 15800, EURUSD trades at 1.2130. Gold and Silver also hardly changed .The USD Index remains at 90.50, the 10 year Rate increases to 1.5.
Japanese Exports rose at the fastest pace since 1980 in May but slightly missed expectations, they came at 49.6% vs 51.3% expected.,
At the FOMC Rate decision tonight, no change in rates is expected with a probability of more than 95% but there are expected to be indications on tapering and maybe comments to which degree the current inflation is transitory.
UK inflation may also be of interest for all GBP traders.
After the smaller moves the last few days, be sure to check your position sizes for possible sharp moves in the USD and or equities depending on the outcome,.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI MM | May | 0.3% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | May | 1.8% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI MM | May | 0.2% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI YY | May | 3.2% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPIX YY | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices MM NSA | May | 1.1% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices YY NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices MM NSA | May | 0.4% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Output Prices YY NSA | May | 4.5% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output MM NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Core Output YY NSA | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | May | 16.9% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | May | 9.0% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | May | 13.6% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Building Permits: Number | May | 1.740M | Number of |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Housing Starts Number | May | 1.630M | Number of |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Import Prices MM | May | 0.7% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation MM | May | 0.4% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation YY | May | 3.5% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core MM | May | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Wholesale Trade MM | Apr | -0.9% | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Funds Tgt Rate | 16 Jun | 0-0.25 | Percent |
16 Jun 2021 | 20:00 | United States | Fed Int On Excess Reserves | 16 Jun | Percent | |
16 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Brazil | Selic Interest Rate | 16 Jun | 4.25% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based QQ, SA | Q1 | 0.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based YY, SA | Q1 | 0.9% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg | Q1 | -2.8% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | GDP Exp Based QQ, SA | Q1 | 0.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | May | 30.0k | Person |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Participation Rate | May | 66.1% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.5% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP MM | May | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | HICP YY | May | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Switzerland | SNB Policy Rate | Q2 | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Norway | Key Policy Rate | 17 Jun | 0.00% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | May | 0.3% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | May | 2.0% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM | May | 0.2% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY | May | 0.9% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Jun | 19.00% | Percent |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Jun | Percent | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jun, w/e | Person | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Cont Jobless Clm | 5 Jun, w/e | Person | |
17 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Jun | 31.0 | Index |
18 Jun 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | May | 0.1% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Overall Nationwide | May | Percent | |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices MM | May | 0.6% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices YY | May | 6.3% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales MM | May | 1.8% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | May | 2.0% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales YY | May | 29.2% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY | May | 27.3% | Percent |
18 Jun 2021 | Japan | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 18 Jun | -0.10% | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.