Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew June 16 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning,

After the rate decision is before the rate decision.

After the FOMC yesterday we are expecting the SNB at 9;30 CET  and the BoE at 13:00 today, in terms of economic data only the Italian CPI at 10:00 and the regular weekly us employment data stand out. The  heads of Germany, France and Italy are on the way to Ukraine to meet the President Zelensky.

The FED hiked by the expected 75 basis point – most in 28 years – yesterday and lowered it`s growth expectations substantially relative to the March release.  The statement showed that FOMC Members expect to lower rates again in 2024. Powell stated in the press conference to watch inflation expectations closely . Equities rose decently despite a fairly hawkish outlook by Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 closed up 1.46% the Dow gained 1%, and the Nasdaq 2.50%, this morning the mood is a bit less stellar with Indexes down app 0.5% again. Traders seem to be digesting the somewhat bleak economic outlook.

Gold and Silver rose to 1831 and 21.65, EURUSD is again trading at 1.0430 after see-sawing quite a bit from 1.0507 to 1.0355 yesterday. The USD Index is at 105.10. Bitcoin and Cryptos could stabilize off the lows but remains near the lows, Bitcoin is currently at 21900.

The Extraordinary ECB Meeting yesterday provided  mainly a bunch of hot air and did not boost confidence the common central bank has any strategy.

Japan’s Trade deficit surged on the week Yen and high prices, providing a dire outlook for the Japanese economy.

The rate decisions by the SNB and the BOE are quite interesting as the expectation is not fully aligned

The SNB is expected to either hold rates or hike 25 BPS to -0.5%. Economists polled by Reuters are on the  no change side while Interest rate markets expect a hike with a  probability of 78%

The Bank of England is expected to hike by either 0.25 or 0.5%.

GBP and CHF are likely to be quite volatile around the releases at 9:30 and 13:00, we can expect to see some volatility as the market digests the FOMC statements and different interpretations are raised and comments are released.

Trade safely

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.