Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Fed remains accommodating, ready for Robin Hood?
Good Morning,
The Fed did a fairly good job of not spooking the market yesterday, they are talking about tapering but have not yet fixed a date. Immediately the Jackson Hole conference end of August was identified as a possible date for the presentation of a plan. Powell said in his news conference that rate increases were "a ways away" and that the job market still had "some ground to cover.
There was little reaction from the markets, most noteworthy the USD decline. The USD Index fell to 92.15, EURUSD rose to 1.1855, Cable to above 1.3930 and Gold as well as Silver rise to 1818 and 25.30.
Equities were fairly quiet with the Nasdaq ending 0.7% higher and the Dow +0.4%, the S&P 500 lost 0.02%. Facebook and PayPal fell 3.5% and 8% on good earnings but weak outlook, Boeing gained 5%
The Chinese securities regulator met with banks representatives yesterday to calm the markets and succeeding to some extent but on the week, Chinese Equities remain negative.
Today is another busy day with lots of economic data, most important probably the US GDP and the initial jobless claims at 14:30 and possibly the German CPI at 14:00 CET. Many companies report earnings : Amazon Hoya, Airbus, Anheuser Busch, Nestle, Volkswagen, Murata Manufacturing Royal Dutch Shell AstraZeneca Tota lEnergies Sanofi Keyence Oriental Land State Bank of India ,,Sberbank Rossii PAO LG Chem Ltd, DSV, Samsung Electronics ,Enel ,American Tower Corp, Ambev Southern, Merck Intercontinental, Northrop Grumman, Altria Group, Keurig Dr Pepper ,Comcast, S&P Global ,Mastercard, Twilio, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Edwards Lifesciences, T-Mobile US, Gilead Sciences, Atlassian Corporation
We are expecting the Robinhood IPO, the Instrument is available online now under ticker HOOD:xnas. We are accepting Limit G.T.C orders only until 1st trading day for both Shares and CFDs. Shorting expected to be available tomorrow.
Joe Biden affirmed a “Buy American” Policy for public spending.
Local Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | GDP YY Prelim | Q2 | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | Jul | 5.8% |
29 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Final | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | IGP-M Inflation Index | Jul | |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | CPI Prelim YY | Jul | 3.2% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | HICP Prelim YY | Jul | 3.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | GDP Advance | Q2 | 8.0% |
29 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 19 Jul, w/e | |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Jun | 1.10 |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 3.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Jun | 5.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 07:30 | France | GDP Preliminary QQ | Q2 | 0.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash QQ SA | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash YY NSA | Q2 | 10.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | Estimated GDP QQ | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | KOF Indicator | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.3% |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim YY | Q2 | 15.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Jul | 2.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Jul | 0.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim YY | Q2 | 13.2% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Jun | 0.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | May | |
30 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Jul | 81.3 |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
