Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 22 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Drivers today should be the ECB, earnings, the initial jobless claims and of course sentiment.


Good Morning,

Drivers today should be the ECB, earnings, the initial jobless claims and of course sentiment.

Yesterday, the reversal of Mondays sharp move continued with equities and yields  rising, the USD gives up ground. The USD Index recedes to 92.75, EURUSD trades 1.1793, Cable rose back aboe the 1.37 to trade 1.3720, Gold lost some ground to 1800 and Silver  fell to 25.13 after 25.33.

The three US Indexes rose close to 1% helped by strong earnings. Based on Reuters Data, 88% of the S&P 500 companies that reported so far this season beat expectations. Highlight yesterday was Chipotle Mexican Grill., rising 11% after strong numbers.

Key expectation for the ECB assessed by Christopher Dembik:

  • The ECB should maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economic recovery in the eurozone, with the acknowledgement of downside risks posed by the spread of the Delta variant. Our baseline is unchanged: growth and inflation will likely surprise the ECB to the upside in late 2021 and in 2022, as it has done so far this year.
  • The ECB could potentially draw a more explicit link between the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), and the new inflation target set at “2%”.
  • The ECB should confirm once more that the unconventional monetary measures are becoming conventional
  • We think there is a broad agreement the PEPP will run until March 2022. But it is unclear how much support Lagarde will be able to gather to replace the PEPP by a new program whose format, duration and objective have yet to be clearly defined.

U.S. Senate Republicans blocked a move to open debate on Wednesday on a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure measure

Germany and the US have resolved their disagreement over the Northstream 2 project

The UK wants to change the Brexit agreement with regards to northern Ireland.

Bitcoin gains to 32k after Elon Must said Tesla would most likely restart accepting it as payment.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Relevance

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

22 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

High

Consumer Confidence

Jul

22 Jul 2021

08:45

France

High

Business Climate Mfg

Jul

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Refinancing Rate

Jul

0.00%

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Deposit Rate

Jul

-0.50%

22 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

High

Initial Jobless Clm

12 Jul, w/e

22 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

High

Existing Home Sales

Jun

5.90M

22 Jul 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

High

Consumer Confid. Flash

Jul

-2.5

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Services PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Comp PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales YY

Jun

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

64.2

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Service Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

62.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

60.1

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Composite PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Services PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

High

IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

High

Retail Sales MM

May

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Jul

(Refinitiv)

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.