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Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 22 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Drivers today should be the ECB, earnings, the initial jobless claims and of course sentiment.

Good Morning,

Drivers today should be the ECB, earnings, the initial jobless claims and of course sentiment.

Yesterday, the reversal of Mondays sharp move continued with equities and yields  rising, the USD gives up ground. The USD Index recedes to 92.75, EURUSD trades 1.1793, Cable rose back aboe the 1.37 to trade 1.3720, Gold lost some ground to 1800 and Silver  fell to 25.13 after 25.33.

The three US Indexes rose close to 1% helped by strong earnings. Based on Reuters Data, 88% of the S&P 500 companies that reported so far this season beat expectations. Highlight yesterday was Chipotle Mexican Grill., rising 11% after strong numbers.

Key expectation for the ECB assessed by Christopher Dembik:

  • The ECB should maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economic recovery in the eurozone, with the acknowledgement of downside risks posed by the spread of the Delta variant. Our baseline is unchanged: growth and inflation will likely surprise the ECB to the upside in late 2021 and in 2022, as it has done so far this year.
  • The ECB could potentially draw a more explicit link between the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), and the new inflation target set at “2%”.
  • The ECB should confirm once more that the unconventional monetary measures are becoming conventional
  • We think there is a broad agreement the PEPP will run until March 2022. But it is unclear how much support Lagarde will be able to gather to replace the PEPP by a new program whose format, duration and objective have yet to be clearly defined.

U.S. Senate Republicans blocked a move to open debate on Wednesday on a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure measure

Germany and the US have resolved their disagreement over the Northstream 2 project

The UK wants to change the Brexit agreement with regards to northern Ireland.

Bitcoin gains to 32k after Elon Must said Tesla would most likely restart accepting it as payment.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Relevance

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

22 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

High

Consumer Confidence

Jul

22 Jul 2021

08:45

France

High

Business Climate Mfg

Jul

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Refinancing Rate

Jul

0.00%

22 Jul 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

High

ECB Deposit Rate

Jul

-0.50%

22 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

High

Initial Jobless Clm

12 Jul, w/e

22 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

High

Existing Home Sales

Jun

5.90M

22 Jul 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

High

Consumer Confid. Flash

Jul

-2.5

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Services PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

01:00

Australia

High

Comp PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM

Jun

23 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

High

Retail Sales YY

Jun

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:15

France

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

64.2

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Service Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

09:30

Germany

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Jul

62.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Jul

59.5

23 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

60.1

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Composite PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

High

Flash Services PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

High

IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

High

Retail Sales MM

May

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Jul

23 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

High

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Jul

(Refinitiv)

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