Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 4 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nervous traders meet mixed data


Good Morning

Risk Sentiment took a beating also on the second day of the year.

Most interesting was Bitcoin whish was hit by rumors there were delays with the Bitcoin ETF approval. The Price of the crypto currency fell from above 45000 to app 40400 before recovering to 43200.

Most major Indexes gave up ground as well with the US 500 at 4706, the US 30 37443, the USTech100NAS  136370 and the GER40 16551. Tesla fell 4%. 

While the 10 year yields retreated to 3.91 back from above 4%, the Dollar Index gained to 102.40. EURUSD is trading at 1.0930, Cable 1.2673 and USDJPY 143.73 An explosion in in Iran, resulting in over 100 casualties at an event commemorating an Iranian general killed in a US drone strike four years ago, caused oil to rise by app. 3%, curiously that did not spill over to precious metals, Gold and Silver lost significantly yesterday and are trading at 2046 and 23.00.

After the Fed minutes, rate traders continue to price in a total of 6 rate cuts this year, the implied rate is 148 BPS below the current rate at 3.84. The ECB is seen to cut six and a half time. Key of the Fed minutes was that the Fed is confident to have inflation under control and that rates were at or near the top.

Economic data was a bit mixed yesterday and today and tomorrow will bring lots of releases to make or break the week. Today, focus will be on international PMI releases, German Inflation data and the US Initial Jobless claims but eyes will already be on the Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow.

We are trading significant swings, be careful! The market is more nervous than numbers seem to justify, traders are on the edge and there seems to be a good amount of profit taking. 

Thursday
- Data: International PMI, De CPI, USADP Employment Index,  Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday
- Data EU Inflation. US Non Farm Payrolls, Canada Unemployment, ISM non-Manufacturing Index

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.