Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Apple and Tesla rule the world
Good morning,
The Year started with lots of interesting moves. Apple became the first company to exceed 3 billion USD in Market capitalization and Tesla surged more than 13% on the strong deliveries and strong outlook, the Dow Jones as well as the S&P500 hit new records, the German Dax breached 16000 again.
Bond Yields rose, the US10 year from 1.52 to a1.64, strengthening the US Dollar, the USD Index trades at 96.20, EURUSD and GBPUSD broke lower to 1.1296 and 1.3460, USDJPY reached a 5 year high. The Bund Future fell to 170.50
Gold and Silver lost ground to 1805 and 22.75 on the surge un US Yields
The Turkish Lira remains volatile as inflation soars to 36% in December, the highest in 19 years. Erdogan said app 5 bio USD had been deposited in accounts protected against currency fluctuations by the state.
Bitcoin remains near the descending trendline at 46300.
China Evergrande Group shares jumped as much as 10% after trading again.
Daimler presented a prototype of an EV with a reach of 1000 KM.
We have a full economic agenda and the UK is back from holiday, it could be another interesting day,
At 8 German Retail Sales expected at -4.9%, Swiss CPI at 8:30 expected at 1.6%, 8:45 the French CPI.
UK Mortgage data and PMI 10:30, Canadian PMI at 15:30 and US ISM at 16:00.
Technical Picture By our Kim Cramer Larsen:
S&P500 bounced off its short term rising trendline just before Christmas starting the Santa Claus rally lifting the Index to new All-Time highs. We could see a couple of days with minor correction possibly down to around 4.700. However, RSI in bullish sentiment without divergence support short term bullish outlook.
DAX bounced strongly off its important support at around 15.100 and followed through with moves above both the 200 and 55 Simple Moving Averages (SMA). There has been some consolidation around resistance at around 15.834.
The bounce from 15.100 has formed a double bottom like pattern and after the closing above 15.834 and the confirmation of and uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) there is potential to new All-time highs in the region of 16.425 and 16.600. RSI needs to close above 60 for further confirmation of the uptrend.
A close below 15.834 could see selling pressure down to 15.500 potentially lower.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.