Morning Brew January 31 2023

Good Morning, 

Nervousness is hitting markets as we are entering the key phase. From today there is a massive event risk from earnings, fundamental economic data and rate decisions as well as outlooks by central banks. Today we are expecting  Exxon, UPS, General Motors Co and Caterpillar before market open and Pfizer, McDonalds, Spotify, AMD, Snap, Amgen, EA, after the close.

Yesterday the Dow lost 0.7%, the S&P 500 1.36% and the Nasdaq 2% with Tesla and Nvidia large losers after Fridays gains goth shedding 5%, Apple Amazon and Alphabet lose app 2%.

10 Year US rates climb to 3.55 and the USD Index gains to 102.30. EURUSD receded to 1.0840, GBPUSD to 1.2345 and USDJPY gains to 130.20. Gold falls to 1914 and is just abocve support at 1910, Silver is trading at 23.45.

Oil prices extended losses interest rate increases and continued Russian crude flows cancelled out demand recovery expectations from China. acc. to Reuters.

Consider very carefully how much risk you want to carry into the remainder of the week, consider options for directional bets and as yield enhancement given the high volatility. 25 Delta Tesla calls are trading at 75% implied Volatility for Late Feb/ March.

As a surprise, Australian Retail sales fell more than expected at -3.9% vs -0.3% expected. In terms of economic data we are expecting the EU and Canadian GDP at 11:00 and 14:30, at 16:00 the US Consumer confidence.

Trade safely.

Economic Data & Earnings

Tuesday

Japan Unemployment Rate,  Australia Retail sales and China Manufacturing PMI

France,  Italy as well as EU GDP, German CPI, US consumer confidence.

Earnings:  Exxon, UPS, GM, Pfizer, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Spotify, AMD, Snap, Amgen, EA,

Wednesday

International PMI thorough the day, EU HICP

FOMC Rate decision

Earnings: Altria, T-Mobile, Peleton, ThermoFischer, Meta,

Thursday

Band Of England, ECB Rate decision

Earnings:   Merck, Lilly, Honeywell, Sony, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Ford, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Gilead,

Friday

International PMI, Nonfarm Payroll

Earnings:  Cigna, CBoe, Sanofi