Log in Open account
International
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 23 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Calm before the storm?

Good Morning

Trading was fairly calm yesterday with few events, The Dow Jones breached the 38k for the first time and the US 500 had another record close but the moves were small with all the three US Indexes less than 0.5%. While moves were subdued, volumes were actually failry highat above 20 day average. 

The most surprising stock mover was ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland) a grain trading company whose shares fell nearly 25%. In Switzerland, Meyer Burger Technology AG remains interesting with question of survival realistic. Shares lost 45% so far this year. Deutsche Bank cut the price target from CHF0.78 to CHF 0.11

Chinese Equities remain unloved for now.

The USD Index and 10 Year Yields decline to 103.12 and 4.09 and for the Fed, the expectation has fallen to 135 basis points of cuts until December and less than 50% chance for a cut in March. For the ECB, traders see 130 bps in cuts and 57 for the Swiss National Bank. With the ECB on Thursday and the PCE Deflator on Friday, any shift here will drive the markets the second half  this week

EURUSD is 1.0904, GBPUSD 1.2735 and USDJPY 148.02 despite the BoJ meeting. The BoJ left monetary policy unchanged and leaves traders guessing if and when it may adopt policy.

Silver traded in wide swings yesterday, falling from 22.50 to 21.95 and then rising back to 22.35.

Economic data is mostly done and dusted today, the Canadian house prices and EU Consumer confidence at 14:30 CET and 16:00 the only items left, earnings will be important but the real (planned) event risk starts tomorrow with the Tesla earnings in my view.

The Middle East and China stimulus could cause sharp market moves any time.

Three key aarticles from yesterday are Peters Earnings Watch, Ole`s COT report and Koens Volatility Report.

Earnings Watch: Can Tesla convince the market about growth?

Volatility report - week 04

COT: Commodities short-selling on the rise amid China woes and Fed caution

Tuesday
- Data Australia CPI, Japan Rate decision,
- Earnings: Verizon, 3m, GE, P&G, Haliburton. Netflix, Texas Instruments

Wednesday
- Data Japan Trade, International PMI, 
- Earnings: AT&T SAP, Tesla, IBM, Servicenow,

Thursday
- Data DE IFO, Norway, Turkey and EU Rate decision, US Durable Goods, GDP ,
- Earnings: American Airlines, Blackstone, Intel, Visa, T-Mobile

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, PPI, US PCE

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.