Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 17 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  US Yields drive Marktes


Good Morning

US Yields remain the market driver, 10 year yields broke to above 4% to trade at 4.06, this pulls the USD Index higher to currently 103.56, above the 200day moving average. EURUSD falls below the 1.09 to 1.0855, GBPUSD 1.26 and USDJPY 147.80. Gold and Silver fall to 2018 and 22.67, Bitcoin 42800

Equity indexes are under pressure with the the US 500 at 4744, the US 30 37237, the US Tech 100 Nas at 16715 and the GER40 16410. .

Chris Waller stated the US was within striking distance of the 2% inflation goal, but the central bank should not rush towards cuts in its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained.

Goldman Sachs reported very good earnings and the stock ended up 0.7% while Morgan Stanley lost 4.2% on weaker than expected numbers.

AMD gained 8.3%, Nvidia 3%. Apple falls 1.2% on the discounts for iPhones in China for IPhones, this leaves Microsoft the world`s most valuable company. Boeing remained under pressure

Spirit Airlines fell 47% on news that a merger with JetBlu was violating anticompetitive laws.

Chinese Data came weak overnight, the GDP fell short of expectations with 5.2% vs 5.3% expected and Retail Sales at 7.4% vs 8% expected key events now are the UK CPI at 8:00 CET, EU HICP at 11, expected at 2.9% and the US retail sales at 14:30 CET with a rise of 0.4% expected.

Besides these data releases, the Middle East and Davos remain in focus. Among others, Javier Milei, Christine Lagarde, Emmanuel Macron and David Cameron will address the forum.

Wednesday

- Data China GDP, Retail Sales, UK CPI, EU HICP, US Retail Sales,
- Earnings: Alcoa, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp,

Thursday
- Data Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed,
- Earnings: TSMC,

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales EU Consumer Confidence,

 

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.