Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Equities as well as the USD Strong
Good Morning,
Equities as well as the USD both had a strong day yesterday, the Dow gained 0.61%, the S&P 1.10%, and the Nasdaq 1.76% and the Nasdaq 100 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since March last year
Tesla gained 11% on the better than expected earnings and Chevron 4.5% on the buy back program. Major Losers were IBM, down 4.5% on disappointing news and Bed Bath & Beyond collapsing 22% on o defaulting on debt.
US Yields rose to 3.55, giving the Dollar some strength and causing Gold, Silver, EURUSD GBPUSD from breaking resistances.
The US GDP as well as Durable goods in the US came higher than expected and the Japanese CPI came higher than expected. Today we are expecting the US Consumption data at 14:30 and the University of Michigan Consumer confidence at 1600 as the key data points.
The weekly closes will be rather interesting from a technical view so todays data will be rather significant.
Fundamentally the Fed is on the 2 and done course as our Steen Jakobsen points out, meaning there will be two hikes by the Fed and then a pause to assess the economic situation. Any change in that expectation will have a significant impact. Next week three key central banks will set rates, the Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The earnings season will continue next week, so far 69% of companies have beat expectations.
Economic Data & Earnings
Friday
EU Money Supply
U PCE, Consumption and Confidence
Earnings: American Express Co Chevron Corp
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGG3 will expire 26 Jan 2023
TTFMG3 will expire 27 Jan 2023
GCG3 will expire 30 Jan 2023
MGCG3 will expire 30 Jan 2023
Expiring CFDs
GASOLINEUSFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
GOLDFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
HEATINGOILFEB23 will expire 27 Jan 2023
CHINA50JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
HK50JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
TAIWAN95JAN23 will expire 30 Jan 2023
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.