Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
We are in a rather interesting market situation. A recent Poll on the US500 by Reuters shows quite well the overall uncertainty. The average assumption is for the US500 to close the year at 4200 of approximately 5% above current levels. BUT the gap between the best and the worst target is reported at 40%, the highest since the global financial crisis. 70% of analysts polled see a high chance for a correction.
Our CIO Risk Monitor also shows a high probability of a risk off move.
It wight be worth to consider taking some profits or hedging gains if you are also on the cautious side. If you would like to discuss possibilities to manage risk, please contact us.
Yesterdays data was a mixed bag, Nvidia could gain massively mainly on a strong outlook for AI; the stock gained 14% yesterday and boosted Tech sentiment, the US GDP came slightly lower and the initial Jobless claims confirmed a tight labor market.
The US 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq 0.7 and the Dow 0.3%, the GER40 is back above the 15500.
The USD Index is little changed at 104.50 as the 2 year yield remains high at 4.7% EURUSD is trading at 1.06, GBPUSD 1.2020 and USDJPY at 134.60. Gold and Silver give up ground to trade at 1824 and 21.30
.The incoming Governor of the Bank of Japan spoke rather hawkishly confirming that while the BoJs Yield Curve Control may need review, he gave no sense of urgency. Japanese Inflation remains high at 4.2%.
Today we are expecting the PCE Price Index expected at 0.4 monthly and 4.3% annually core. The PCE price index reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States and is a key inflation measure for the Fed.
Trade safely.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
EMAH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023
FLGH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023
TTFMH3 will expire 24 Feb 2023
HGH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
KEH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
RRH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
SIH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
SILH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
TNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
UBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
XKH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
XWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
Z3NH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZCH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZFH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZLH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZMH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZOH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZSH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZTH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
HOH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
RBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
SBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
Expiring CFDs
10YUSTNOTEMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
30YUSTBONDMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
COPPERUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
CORNMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
GASOLINEUSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
HEATINGOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SILVERMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANMEALMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANOILMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SOYBEANSMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
SUGARNYMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023
CHINA50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy