Morning Brew December 22021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk sentiment if fighting back
Please find the trading schedule for Christmas and the New Year here
Markets saw a strong reversal yesterday, proving the year will remain interesting. Indexes soared ad closed up 1.6% in case of the Dow, 1.8 the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 2.4%. Megatech rose with Tesla +4.3%, Amazon +2%, Nvidia 4.9%. Apple gained 2% but needs a few good days this year to breach the 3 trio USD in market cap. Nike gained 6% on strong results. After the rise yesterday, the Dax future is trading spot on the 200d Moving average and has the day to decide. The S&P 500 closed above initial resistance at 4630 opening the chance for a year end rally.
US 10 Year yield rose to almost 1.5% yesterday before falling to 1.46, the German 30 yield turned positive again yesterday to reach 0.069. The 200d MA is 0.19%
The USD Index gained a little ground yesterday to 96.50, the EURUSD falls to 1.1270 GBPUS trades at 1.3250, gold 1787 and silver 22.45. The Turkish Lira stabilized near 12 against the USD.
Japan plans the largest Budget in history for fiscal 2022, USDJPY can gain to 114.
Bitcoin is approaching the 50.000 again, now trading just at the key initial resistance at the trendline from November to now. If it makes the break, 41k and 54k would be the next levels to watch.
In Europe, energy prices continue to rise , the March 2022 Baseload closed above 400 per Megawatt, Natural Gas at a high.
It seems overall the market sentiment into year end is quite positive as long there are no really striking bad news. There is certainly enough potential to scare off investors starting with Omicron, the looming conflict n Ukraine, US Politics and not least inflation.
Events today are UK GDP at 8:00 CET this morning and the US GDP, the Final PCE at 14:30 and Consumer Confidence at 16:00. Tomorrow German Import Prices and the Spanish GDP are on the agenda.
I will be off from this afternoon until the 29th of December and wish you all great holidays and safe travels.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.