Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: A Key week ahead
Good Morning,
A crucial week for the markets lies ahead of us:
Monday: UK GDP and production
Tuesday: German CPI, UK Labor data, US CPI
Wednesday: Japanese Tankan, UK CPI& PPI, EU Industrial Production, FOMC Rate decision
Thursday: China Retail Sales, Swiss National Bank, Danish Central Bank, Bank Of England and the ECB set rates, US Retail Sales
Friday: UK Retail Sales, International PMI
On Wednesday we will interview our FX Strategist John Hardy and publish it ahead of the rate decision and publish it to give some guidance as to what may come. A good preview, John published in his weekly FX outlook: Will market shrug off FOMC dot plot raise?
On Friday, the US PPI rose slightly more than expected on a jump in the costs of services, Equities gave up some ground and 10 year yields in the US rose to near 3.6%. U S Indexes gave up less than 1%, the USD Index moved little but Gold and Silver were strong.
Overnight there is little move with GER 40 at 14295, US 500 at 3930 and the USTech100 at 11550. EURUSD is trading at 1.0515, GBPUSD at 1.2226, USDJPY 137. Gold and Silver are lower at 1787 and 23.25. The Vix is trading at 22.80.
Besides fundamental Data we are watching the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and China, that could turn very important if both agree to settle oil in RMB rather than USD.
European Energy Markets will receive lots of attention with the cold weather hitting in full swing. Gas and electricity prices should be volatile.
Consider your positions carefully going into the week – especially the speculative ones an consider using options to profit from large swings and limiting the risk.
Trade Safely!
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy