Morning Brew December 1 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk-On into December
Good morning, and welcome to December.
Risk on across most of the board this morning, equities are around 1% higher with the Dax at 15300, the US 500at 4610 and the US 30 at 34640.
EURUSD 1.1335, GBPUSD 1.3335, Gold 1788 and Silver 22.97, Bitcoin remains at 57k. The Volatlity Index Vix rose to 27 yesterday.
Powell hinted at an earlier tapering roadmap yesterday and it now seems like the end of the asset purchases would happen in Q1 2022 rather than in June. Several senators gave optimistic comments on raising the debt ceiling in time to avoid shut downs.
The US tightens travelling rules but does not outright ban entry.
Opec begins its two day meeting and oil can make up some of the ground it lost yesterday, we fell to a low of 64.43 in the CL contract before recovering to 68.06.
We have a fairly full agenda today with PMI out of France, Spain, Italy, Germany and Switzerland as well as the US. It is likely that inflation is higher than initially expected given the hawkish tones out of the FED yesterday.
Key driver are likely to be news around the Omicron variant and the question if and how far reaching measures will be.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.