Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: FOMC key
Good Morning,
Yesterday markets seesawed and closed little changed in the end all 3 US Indexed ended less than 0.5% from Wednesdays close. The German Benchmark attempted to break higher yesterday but gave up most gains after closing the technical gap and the BoE warning of recession risks. Coinbase and Blackrock announced a cooperation and Coinbase shares can jump by 10%.
As expected, the Bank of England hiked 50 Basis points. A bit surprisingly it expects a recession.
The USD Index fell yesterday as the number of unemployed rose last week in the US, the index fell to 105.93, EURUSD 1.0225, GBPUSD at 1.2135 and USDJPY is 133.35. Gold and Silver trade 1790 and 20.20 -despite weak oil, Bitcoin remains near 23k but a little above.
Today, unless something really extraordinary happens, all eyes will be on the US Labor market and the Non-Farm Payroll at 14:30.. Economists expect 250,000 jobs added in July, the unemployment rate at 3.6% and the average earnings at 0.3%. Todays data points will be a part of the Feds next rate decision so extremely important.
Peter Garnry published an article on the biotech sector yesterday and Kim Cramer took the opportunity to take a look at the sector from the technical side. Both are very much worth a look. Among the ETF, the iShares Healthcare Innovation ETF and the iShares Healthcare Innovation ETF have issued a KID and are available for retail clients as well.
Peters article is here: Cutting Edge Biotech
Kim`s is here: NextGen Medicine ETF's
It seems we are observing the classic investment cycle where may are not participating in the recovery, the US 500 has recovered 15% off the June lows Investors continue to buy equities in the Fed-meeting break, the next meeting is end of September. Good earnings and strong fundamental data helps, risks seem to be widely ignored by the broader market.
Technically as well as fundamentally the best course of action seems to be cautiously optimistic, stops or protection are nevertheless a good idea.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.