Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Worries Over Pelosis Taiwan Visit Cause a Pause in Equity Gains.
Good Morning,
After a stellar July with the strongest Index gains since 2020, equities paused yesterday and today look under pressure as well.. Key event of the day is likely to be the visit of Nancy Pelosi and a Chinese response. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on Monday that it would be "a gross interference in China's internal affairs" if Pelosi visits Taiwan, acc to Reuters.
Yesterday, the big three Indexes fell, but all less than 0.5%. Manufacturing in the US came better than expected and indicated an easing of supply chain disruptions.
BP just now reported the best 2nd Quarter result in 14 years showing our stats team was correct with their take on energy stocks. Here our Peter Garny comments on Equites in July and what to watch out for.
Right now, European and US Index Futures trade app 0.5% lower.
USDJPY fell further to 130.85 after reaching 139.40 just two weeks ago, the USD Index fell below 106 to 105.30.EURUSD is at 1.0250 and GBPUSD at 1.2250. Gold rose to within reach of the 1785 resistance, Silver holds above 20 at 20.25 and the US 10 years Yield fell to 2.55.
The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked by 50 Bass points in the night but gave a cautious outlook and the Aussie fell 50 pips.
Bitcoin is holding above the 20k level but a little off the highs at currently 22900.
The Week should be dominated by any data indicating the further path of the Fed, Earnings and any fallout of the Sino-US tensions. The US Nonfarm Payroll will play an important role in gauging the state of the US labor market.
Trade safely!
Key Economic Data this week:
Today: Canada PMI at 15:30
Tomorrow: International PMI, China: 03:45, France 09:45, Germany 09:50, EU 10:00 UK 10:30 US 15:45
Thursday DE Industrial Orders, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Jobs data,
Friday: DE Industrial Output, US Nonfarm Payroll
Key Earnings:
Tuesday: Kweichow Moutai, Generali, Mitsubishi UFJ, BP, Koninklijke DSM, AMD, Caterpillar, PayPal, Starbucks, Airbnb, Occidental Petroleum, Marriott International, Uber Technologies, Ferrari, Electronic Arts
Wednesday: Nutrien, Maersk, AXA, Societe Generale, Siemens Healthineers, BMW, Infineon Technologies, Vonovia, Nintendo, JDE Peet’s, CVS Health, Booking, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Fortinet, Albemarle, eBay, MercadoLibre
Thursday: Novo Nordisk, Credit Agricole, Merck, Bayer, Adidas, Beiersdorf, Toyota, SoftBank, Glencore, ING Groep, Eli Lilly, Alibaba, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Air Products and Chemicals, Block, DoorDash, Twilio
Friday: Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Allianz, Deutsche Post, Naturgy Energy Group
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
Live Cattle - Aug 2022 will expire 5th Aug at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
LIVECATTLEAUG22 will expire 4th Aug at 15:00 GMT.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst