Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Lot`s of input, direction unclear
Good Morning,
While yields continue to dominate market sentiment we have loads of data to digest that paint a difficult picture:
US Yields are at the highest in more than a year and the 30 year Mortgage in the US is at the highest level since 2000..
China reported disappointing data but the central bank cut the rate on medium term lending by 15 Basis points. Urban Investment came at 3.4 vs 3.8% expected, Industrial output 3.7% vs 4.4% and retail sales 2.5% vs 4.5%.
The UK reported a higher unemployment rate but higher earnings this morning
Japans GDP surprised to the upside but failed to boost the JPY.
Nvidia was the share of the day that gained 7.1% Micron 6.1% - Nvidia closed at 437 and rose to 445 in the aftermarket. Jim Cramer praised the share. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to end the session at 4,489.72 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.1% to 13,788.33 points, while Dow rose 0.07% to 35,307.63 points.
Michael Burry announced substantial holdings in put options on the S&P and the Nasdaq with a notional of 1.5 bio.
UBS pays 1.4 Bio USD to settle Mortgage claims
The USD Index traded as high as 103.46 yesterday and now fell to 103.02. EURUSD is at 1.0920, GBPUSD 1.2700 and USDJPY in firm intervention territory at 145.50. Gold is hanging on to the 1900 support, a close below would be a bad sign, Silver is at 22.65.
Donald Trump is being charged with a fourth set of criminal charges in Georgia
Today we are watching the German ZEW and the US Retail sales as coming key events, US Yields are also a decisive factor so keep an eye on the chart of the 10 Bond Future for the Inverted Yield ZNc1
Tuesday August 15
Data: Japan GDP, China Retail Sales, UK Labor Data, DE ZEW, US Retail Sales, CA CPI
Earnings: Suncor Energy Inc, Alcon, Home Depot Inc,
Wednesday August 16
Data: AU Rate decision, UK CPI, EU GDP, US Indurstrial Production,
Earnings: Tencent Holdings, Cisco, JD.com, Synopsys Inc
Thursday August 17
Data: JP Trade, Initial Jobless claims
Earnings: Target Corp, CNOOC,, Adyen, Walmart Inc, Applied Materials Inc,
Friday August 18
Data: UK Retail sales, HICP
Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Deere, Estee Lauder
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.