Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Earnings and weak USD key today
Good Morning,
The Earning Season remains key – so far 77% of the 90 US 500 components have beat expectations – will that trend hold is the key question. Equities closed mixed yesterday with volumes very low. There were less than 10 bio shares traded on US exchanges. At the moment the US Tech Nas is trading at 12930, the US 500 at 4124, the US 30 at 33800. The GER40 failed to hold above the 15900 again, 15930 is the key resistance.
First Republic Bank lost more than $100 billion in deposits and it`s shares fell more than 20% after the bell. Coca Cola can beat expectations while Bed Bath and Beyond files for bankruptcy. Tesla raises it`s expenditure forecast to drive production. Hyundai Motor Co said it finalised a $5 billion electric vehicle battery joint venture in the U.S. and more than doubled its profit.
UBS This morning reported lower than expected profits due to to reserves for a legal case in the US, at the same time the bank managed 42 Bio in new assets – the equivalent of two thirds of Credit Suisse outflows. Nestle reported slightly better-than-expected first-quarter sales
The US Dollar came under pressure as US Yields fell. There was no change in the expectation for next week’s rate decision but the expectation for December fell by 10 basis points. The expectation is now a hike next week and more than 2 cuts by December. 2 year yields are near 4 again at now 4.07. The Dollar Index is at 101.30, with 100.80 key support. EURUSD Is trading above 1.10 at 1.1050, GBPUSD 1.2480 and Gold and Silver rise to 1994 and 25.10.
According to a Reuters report, US tax revenue is lower than expected, this can cause the debt ceiling to be reached earlier than previously thought – this could cause volatility in the US Dollar.
Earnings are likely to be the key mover today, technical trading could also be interesting – expecialy in FX if we test the 1.1075 in EURUSD or the 100.80 in the USD Index.
Tuesday
Economic Data:
Japan PPI
US, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
Earnings: UBS, Verizon, UPS, Halliburton, GM, McDonalds, GE, 3m Pepsico, Spotify, Raytheon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, TI, Juniper
Wednesday
Economic Data:
Australia Trade Data,
Sweden Rate Decision
France Unemployment
US Durable Goods
Earnings:Boeing, General DynamicsMeta, Roku, Enovics,
Thursday
Economic Data:
Sweden GDP,
EU Consumer Confidence
Turkey Rate Decision
US GDP Advance, Initial Jobless claims
Earnings: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck ,Amazon, Intel, Pinterest, Gilead, Amgen,
Friday
Economic Data:
Swiss KOF
Germany Unemployment, GDP
EU GDP
US PCE, University of Michigan,
Canada GDP
Earnings:
ExxonMobile, Colgate,Cameco,
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.