Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key Week ahead - Lots of nervousness in Tech and Precious Metals.
Good morning,
On Friday we saw a curious end to a curious week! While the Dow gained 0.56%, the S&P closed down 0.88% and the Nasdaq lost 2.05.
American Express gained more than 6% after earnings, Netflix lost 9%. Nvidia fell 10% and Super microcomputer lost 23% and the Vix rose above 20. The loss by Nvidia on Friday was the second highest loss in history – only Meta lost more in Feb 2022 at 232 Bio. The fact that 4 out of the magnificent 7 report his week is amazing timing. This morning sentiment seems to be friendly with indexes recovering or rising.
This morning Gold and Silver are retreating, and the question is if this is perceived as an opportunity to buy the dip of a longer term move. Gold is down 1.2% and Silver as usual the more volatile at -3%. Gold is 2363 and Silver 27.85. The Weekend seems to be the time to watch precious metals, all the huge moves we saw in the last 7 months happened Friday or Sunday. Crude oil loses 1.08%. Bitcoin took the halving well and is currently up 3.6%.
Copper remains high at 449.
FX seems fairly quiet, but the week should bring some volatility with key US data and the Bank of Japan on Friday, fixed income will depend on data and record auctions.
The US House passed $95 billion Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid package and now the Senate needs to approve. This was a major policy achievement by opponents of MAGA.
Tesla announced further price reductions in Germany and China.
We are looking at a week with key data and massive Earnings. Several of the Big Tech will report, key re likely Tesla on Tuesday, Meta and IBM on Wednesday as well as Microsoft, Alphabet and Snap on Thursday.
Key economic releases are the PMIs, the US GDP and the PCE on Friday. We are in the Feds blackout period as the rate decision is on the 1st of May.
Monday
- Data EU Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings: Verizon, SAP,
Tuesday
- Data International PMI, Secretary Blinken visits China
- Earnings: GM, UPS, GE, PepsiCo, Lockheed Martin Spotify, Halliburton, Tesla, Visa, Texas Instruments, Chubb,
Wednesday
- Data AU PMI, DE IFO Index, US Durable Goods Orders, CA Retail Sales
- Earnings: Lloyds, Boeing, AT&T, General Dynamics, Biogen, Meta, Ford, IBM,
Thursday
- Data Turkey Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, GDP Advance
- Earnings: BNP Deutsche Bank, Barclays American Airlines, Caterpillar, AstraZeneca, Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Snap, Roku, T-Mobile, Gilead
Friday
- Data Japan Interest Rate US PCE
- Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
ZOK4 will expire on 22 Apr 2024 at 15:00
CCK4 will expire on 23 Apr 2024 at 15:00
CLK4 will expire on 22 Apr 2024 at 15:00
CTK4 will expire on 23 Apr 2024 at 15:00
OJK4 will expire on 23 Apr 2024 at 15:00
ECOK4 will expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
RCK4 will expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
Expiring CFDs
COCOANYMAY24 will expire on 22 Apr 2024 at 15:00
COTTONMAY24 will expire on 22 Apr 2024 at 15:00
NATGASUSMAY24 will expire on 24 Apr 2024 at 15:00
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.