Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk-.On Rules Despite Disappointing Chinese Growth
Good Morning,
After a bit of a breather yesterday, risk sentiment found a firm grip on the markets again, stocks rise, the USD falls pushing EURUSD, Gold as well as Silver higher.
German Inflation came at the highest level since the reunification and if the EU Inflation today is similarly high, the ECB can expect a firm demand for action from the Bundesbank. Should Inflation become a topic in the upcoming election because the old German fear of devaluation reemerges, none of the candidates seem to be prepared. Scholz maybe the most, but his less then stellar performance in the two largest recent German finance scandals, Wirecard and Cum Ex, don`t let him shine in the best light.
The USD Index is trading at a decent support level here at 92.45 if broken, 92.10 would come into focus, EURUSD broke above the 1.18, Gold 1816 and Silver 24.17, US Stocks (Nasdaq and S&P500) broke to new records again with the S&P 500 .SPX gaining 19 points to 4,528.76 and the Nasdaq 136.22 points, , to 15,265. Dax is on track towards the 16000 again it seems with 75 points to go.
Paypall is apparently considering the development of a stock trading platform.
Chinas PMI fell to 50.1 from 50.4, and the country continues it`s tech-regulation spree, banning minors form spending more than 3 hours a week on online games, gaming shares suffer.
EU Inflation is due at 11:00 CET and expected at 2.7%, US Consumer confidence will be released at 16:00 CET.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP YY Prelim | Q2 | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jul | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | GDP QQ Final | Q2 | 0.9% |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Aug | 2.1% |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jul | |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | Aug | -34k |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | Aug | 5.6% |
31 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Final QQ | Q2 | 2.7% |
31 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Final YY | Q2 | 17.3% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Aug | -0.2% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Aug | 2.0% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Aug | 2.8% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Aug | 1.4% |
31 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP QQ Annualized | Q2 | 2.5% |
31 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | Jun | 0.7% |
31 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Consumer Confidence | Aug | 124.0 |
1 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | South Korea | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q2 | 0.5% |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q2 | 9.2% |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Mfg PMI Final | Aug | 50.2 |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Aug | 0.1% |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Aug | 8.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | GDP Quarterly YY | Q2 | 21.7% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | Aug | 60.0 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | 57.3 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | Aug | 62.7 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | Aug | 60.1 |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q2 | 12.8% |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 58.5 |
2 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jul | 10,200M |
2 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Final | Q2 | |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jul | -0.7% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jul | 1.8% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jul | -70.9B |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 28 Aug, w/e | 345k |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jul | 1.70B |
2 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jul | 0.3% |
3 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Aug | 0.60% |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Aug | 56.4 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Aug | 55.9 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 60.6 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Aug | 59.7 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 59.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Aug | 728k |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 5.2% |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Aug | 4.0% |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 61.8 |
6 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jul |
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist