Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning Brew 10 August 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will the CPI decide the taper?
Good Morning,
Markets continue to digest higher US yields, with the US Dollar rising to 93 in the USD Index, 1.1738 against the EUR GBPUSD trades at 1.3845, Gold at 1734 and Silver at 23.60. Gold tested the 1720 support again over night which so far held. If we breach that level, 1680 would be key. , Silver support lies around 23.20 ahead of 22.50/22.00. Bitcoin exceeds 45k and US Crude oil 67.40.
Equities remained fairly calm yesterday and overnight, just slightly off all time highs in most indexes, Dax trades at 15750 in the CFD with the key level at 15800, the US 30 trades just above 35000the US 500 at 4427 and the US Tech 100 at 15125. The Swiss Index posted a new all time high yesterday and is trading near the top.
We saw some shift out of rate sensitive stocks into banks who would profit from a steeper yield curve.
Key event coming up is the US CPI tomorrow expected at 0.5% monthly and 5.3% annually, before that, the German ZEW today at 11, US Labor costs at 14:30 and the German CPI tomorrow will be of interest. The German CPI is expected at 3.8% annually, a number near that level will cause further calls for tapering by the Bundesbank. The US Senate is scheduled to vote on the infrastructure bill at 17:00 CET today.
Headlines:
Global warming is dangerously close to spiraling out of control, according U.N. climate report
Bionteck is values at almost twice as high as Bayer
Softbanks Profit falls 39%
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
10 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Current Account NSA JPY | Jun | 779.8B |
10 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | Jul | |
10 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | Jul | 2.8% |
10 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jul | |
10 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Aug | 57.0 |
10 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Current Conditions | Aug | 30.0 |
10 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA Inflation Index MM | Jul | 0.93% |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jul | 1,700.00B | |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jul | 8.7% | |
10 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jul | 1,200.0B | |
11 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | HICP Final YY | Jul | 3.1% |
11 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jul | -1.1% |
11 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jul | 0.9% |
11 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | Jun | 9.00% |
11 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | CPI MM, SA | Jul | 0.5% |
12 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jul | 0.5% |
12 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jul | 5.0% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | Jun | 4.8% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | Jun | 0.7% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | Jun | 15.0% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | Jun | 0.4% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Prelim QQ | Q2 | 4.8% |
12 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Prelim YY | Q2 | 22.1% |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | CBT Weekly Repo Rate | Aug | 19.00% |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Lending Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | O/N Borrowing Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Turkey | Late Liquidity Window Rate | Aug | |
12 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 7 Aug, w/e | 373k |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jul | 0.1% |
13 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jul | 1.6% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Jun | |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | Jul | 0.3% |
13 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | Jul | 1.4% |
13 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Aug | 81.2 |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Annualised | Q2 | 0.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ Capital Expend. | Q2 | 1.7% |
16 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP QQ External Demand | Q2 | -0.1% |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jul | |
16 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jul |
(refinitv)
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