Morning Brew October 21 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
The Dow Jones and Bitcoin hit new highs, German Inflation soars, Weidman resigns – Everything Bubble calls are getting louder again.
US 10 year yields are trading at 1.65 and the USD Index at 93.60, the Vix fell to a two month low on less risk aversion.
The EURUSD rose to 1.1650, GBPUSD rose above 1.38 Gold and Silver can rise to 1785 and 24.55. Gold has significant levels at 1800 and 1810 ahead of the important 1835. Silver needs to break above the 25 level.
The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy it has become the fastest fund ever to reach $1 billion in AUM and new shouts for 100k levels and even higher for this year are getting louder again for Bitcoin. As the BITO does not supply a so called Key information document it is not available for distribution to retail clients in Europe, there are other instruments to trade bitcoin available such as the BTCUSD or ABTC:xswx. Bitcoin traded at 67000 for the first time yesterday and is slightly below that level now.
Tesla beat results yesterday but failed to excite investors, the stock fell slightly in the aftermarket but only by 14 USD, IBM missed expectations and fell by 5% after hours.
Evergrande’s shares fell more than 10% after a real estate sale failed.
Barclays, Unilever and Jyske as well as Kühne and Nagel beat expectations today, ABB misses as supply chain issues hurst sales.
Jens Weidman, Head of the Bundesbank and strong hawk announces his resignation with effect at year end yesterday, that could be a dovish signal.
China indicated it may intervene to break the rise in coal prices sending futures loser, overall energy prices remain high and in a sign of market tightness, WTI futures contracts are currently in steep backwardation. Russia stated it`s storages were 97% full
Today the initial jobless claims out of the US, the Philly Fed Business Index, both at 14:30 CET and the EU Consumer confidence will be important releases, it will be interesting if Inflation is starting to weigh on the sentiment in the EU. Key company results are Intel and AT&T
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.