Saxo G20 Risk Radar: October 15, 2018

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary: Saxo's G20 Risk Radar identifies potential political risk events in the G20 countries that could have an impact on the market. It is updated on a regular basis with the most up-to-date data.

We have added additional data to the Saxo G20 Risk Radar focusing on the Sino-US trade war and Brexit.

Brexit negotiations look problematic due to many pending issues about trade and Northern Ireland, and it is getting more and more likely that there will be an emergency European Union summit in November to find a middle-ground by year-end.

On the trade front, one of the most important political meetings in the coming weeks will certainly be the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit at the end of November. With the US midterm elections behind President Trump, it could be a great opportunity for the US administration to soften its approach in its trade battle with China. There is little doubt that Trump believes in the virtues of protectionism, but he also listens to the stock market and if the current turmoil continues, Trump will likely do his best to avoid adopting a tougher stance against Beijing in order to reassure investors.

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy
The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
Read article
French President Macron resigns
The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Read article
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate
As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
Read article
EU Army forces EU down path to full union
With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
Read article
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030
In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
Read article
UK holds UnBrexit referendum
Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Read article
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation
History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
Read article
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset
Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
Read article
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system
Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Read article
Tax haven ban kills private equity
With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
Read article

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Saxo G20 Risk Radar: October 15, 2018

Christopher Dembik

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Latest Market Insights

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

French President Macron resigns

Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

EU Army forces EU down path to full union

A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

UK holds UnBrexit referendum

Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

Tax haven ban kills private equity

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