Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Saxo G20 Risk Radar: October 15, 2018
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Saxo's G20 Risk Radar identifies potential political risk events in the G20 countries that could have an impact on the market. It is updated on a regular basis with the most up-to-date data.
We have added additional data to the Saxo G20 Risk Radar focusing on the Sino-US trade war and Brexit.
Brexit negotiations look problematic due to many pending issues about trade and Northern Ireland, and it is getting more and more likely that there will be an emergency European Union summit in November to find a middle-ground by year-end.
On the trade front, one of the most important political meetings in the coming weeks will certainly be the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit at the end of November. With the US midterm elections behind President Trump, it could be a great opportunity for the US administration to soften its approach in its trade battle with China. There is little doubt that Trump believes in the virtues of protectionism, but he also listens to the stock market and if the current turmoil continues, Trump will likely do his best to avoid adopting a tougher stance against Beijing in order to reassure investors.
Brexit negotiations look problematic due to many pending issues about trade and Northern Ireland, and it is getting more and more likely that there will be an emergency European Union summit in November to find a middle-ground by year-end.
On the trade front, one of the most important political meetings in the coming weeks will certainly be the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit at the end of November. With the US midterm elections behind President Trump, it could be a great opportunity for the US administration to soften its approach in its trade battle with China. There is little doubt that Trump believes in the virtues of protectionism, but he also listens to the stock market and if the current turmoil continues, Trump will likely do his best to avoid adopting a tougher stance against Beijing in order to reassure investors.
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