Head of FX Strategy
Summary: The Mueller report has landed, and its mixture of findings has only emboldened the fierce partisan divide in US politics. While markets remain broadly unfazed, the political battles to come could have meaningful effects on US policy into the 2020 election.
While the Mueller Report on Russian interference in the 2016 US election failed to establish that President Trump’s campaign “coordinated or conspired” with Moscow to sway the 2016 ballot, the multitude of lesser obstructions, infractions, and general murky dealings uncovered in the report mean that Trump’s domestic enemies are emboldened – even as his own base attempts a victory lap. For the moment, markets appear unmoved by the debate, but where the Democrats and the Trump administration take their battle from here could have a lot to say about US policy and even US stability into the 2020 election.
Here's what some key commentators are saying about the release.
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.
