Mixed Flash German PMI
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: German Flash manufacturing PMI is out at 43.8 vs 42.9 expected and prior at 42.1 but downside risks remain for the German economy.
The consensus widely expected a rebound in German manufacturing PMI. It is still well in contraction territory, but it is back to a 5-month high of 43.8 (versus 42.1 in October). The output index is also showing signs of improvement at 45.2 vs prior at 43.9. The bounce is mostly driven by external demand, especially improved export growth to Turkey and the UK. However, downside risks remain for December/January as export growth to China continues to deteriorate, reaching minus 8.2% YoY in October. On another note, the Services PMI is out weaker to a 38-month low of 51.3. However, the risk of contagion from the manufacturing sector to the services sector is still contained in our view.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.