Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Mixed Flash German PMI
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: German Flash manufacturing PMI is out at 43.8 vs 42.9 expected and prior at 42.1 but downside risks remain for the German economy.
The consensus widely expected a rebound in German manufacturing PMI. It is still well in contraction territory, but it is back to a 5-month high of 43.8 (versus 42.1 in October). The output index is also showing signs of improvement at 45.2 vs prior at 43.9. The bounce is mostly driven by external demand, especially improved export growth to Turkey and the UK. However, downside risks remain for December/January as export growth to China continues to deteriorate, reaching minus 8.2% YoY in October. On another note, the Services PMI is out weaker to a 38-month low of 51.3. However, the risk of contagion from the manufacturing sector to the services sector is still contained in our view.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist