Details Cookies
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22... Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22... Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22...

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22...

Macro 4 minutes to read

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22... 


Top of Mind…

  • So remember, US out today on Memorial day – it is the final wk for the month of May, one more month & that’s 2Q/1H under wraps!
  • Would expect similar themes of May to carry onto Jun, especially in regards to how much of the world’s economies are coming back on line (not just “opening up”) & in the US, new focus will not be continuing claims & JOLTS, as it will be all about how many folks are getting their jobs back. Again, seems like too high a number (over 2/3) expect to get their jobs back… KVP would be impressed with 50% of those jobs returning by year end. 25%? Sure… 50% by close of 2020? Not so sure…
  • Still as we talked about in the monthly Macro Dragon exercise… on potential higher probability pathways... expect more fiscal expansion as it becomes beyond clear that this is not a V-shaped bounce for the underlying economies of the world. Another “fiscal stability plug” (it is not stimulus) to workers would be more of the same, yet upside risk would be a game changing infrastructure fund – as this could create actual real underlying economic demand for years – with downside risk being no further fiscal policy spend of any significance. To put it, in another way – have to keep serving the alcohol if you don’t want people to come of the high of the party to face the consequences.
  • Could we have a better than expected economic bounce out of all this? Sure… again, so far dislocation between the underlying economy & listed asset classes continues to diverge… so May, could see some of the same. Remember the paths of least resistance, global tech higher, global banks lower (i.e. latter cannot hide).  
  • Part of the themes this week is likely to continue on the geopolitical front - Keep watching US / CH, as well as AU / CH on further fall-out key risk… keep USDCNH on your dashboards, KVP would not be short this cross until its very clear that all we are going to get is bark & no bite from the US / trump.
  • Of course keep monitoring Covid-19… especially in parts of Asia where it seems to be pulling a 2nd wave. Have to admit, KVP is of the view that even if places around the world get a 2nd wave – i.e. assuming they have fully reopened – the bar to shut down again is going to be that much higher & not as convinced markets will react negatively on a sustainable basis.
  • In fact, it could be deemed great news for listed assets such as equities… as it could mean that the likes of Papa-Fed (& other central banks) are going to be back pushing on the liquidity button, like a monkey in the cage that gets rewarded (So far at least) for every push of the button. So again nothing is off the table, as we are all literally all on the table in this new financial repression & MMT world.
  • Economic data wise: Standouts are likely to be 2nd reading on US GDP, as well as PCE & personal spending & Personal income data. There is a tentative date for the treasury currency report, could they perhaps mention the SNB & have an impact on CHF crosses? Not sure…  We do have inflation figures out of the EZ & JP, GDP out of CA & capex out of AU.
  • Central Banks: Rate decision wise we will hear from BoK where ar e25bp cut is expected to +0.50% - yep, yep… they are currently still +0.75% is a 0% to negative yielding bank world. BoC’s Poloz will be talking, as will a few Fed members including Williams, Kashkari & Bullard. KVP would also put Norges Bank deputy Bache on the radar.   
  • US: House Prices & new Homes sales, PMIs from Richmond & Chicago, 2nd GDP reading on 1QGDP -4.8%e/p, Durable Goods, Core PCE, Personal Spending + Personal Income, UoM, tentative on Treasury currency Report    
  • CH: Data light wk
  • EZ: GER final GDP -2.2%p, ECB financial stability review, M3 Money Supply, Private Loans, CPI Flash
  • JP: All industries activity, BoJ + Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales  
  • UK: House Prices, CBI realized sales, consumer Confidence
  • AU: Construction Work, Private Capital Expenditure, Private Sector credit
  • NZ: Trade Balance, RBNZ Financial Stability Report, ANZ Business Confidence
  • CA: Current Account, GDP m/m, Corporate Profits


Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…

  • May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks – again keep reflagging this one, as there is a lot of shelf life in the themes discussed here


Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.




The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.