Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22...
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 22...
Top of Mind…
- So remember, US out today on Memorial day – it is the final wk for the month of May, one more month & that’s 2Q/1H under wraps!
- Would expect similar themes of May to carry onto Jun, especially in regards to how much of the world’s economies are coming back on line (not just “opening up”) & in the US, new focus will not be continuing claims & JOLTS, as it will be all about how many folks are getting their jobs back. Again, seems like too high a number (over 2/3) expect to get their jobs back… KVP would be impressed with 50% of those jobs returning by year end. 25%? Sure… 50% by close of 2020? Not so sure…
- Still as we talked about in the monthly Macro Dragon exercise… on potential higher probability pathways... expect more fiscal expansion as it becomes beyond clear that this is not a V-shaped bounce for the underlying economies of the world. Another “fiscal stability plug” (it is not stimulus) to workers would be more of the same, yet upside risk would be a game changing infrastructure fund – as this could create actual real underlying economic demand for years – with downside risk being no further fiscal policy spend of any significance. To put it, in another way – have to keep serving the alcohol if you don’t want people to come of the high of the party to face the consequences.
- Could we have a better than expected economic bounce out of all this? Sure… again, so far dislocation between the underlying economy & listed asset classes continues to diverge… so May, could see some of the same. Remember the paths of least resistance, global tech higher, global banks lower (i.e. latter cannot hide).
- Part of the themes this week is likely to continue on the geopolitical front - Keep watching US / CH, as well as AU / CH on further fall-out key risk… keep USDCNH on your dashboards, KVP would not be short this cross until its very clear that all we are going to get is bark & no bite from the US / trump.
- Of course keep monitoring Covid-19… especially in parts of Asia where it seems to be pulling a 2nd wave. Have to admit, KVP is of the view that even if places around the world get a 2nd wave – i.e. assuming they have fully reopened – the bar to shut down again is going to be that much higher & not as convinced markets will react negatively on a sustainable basis.
- In fact, it could be deemed great news for listed assets such as equities… as it could mean that the likes of Papa-Fed (& other central banks) are going to be back pushing on the liquidity button, like a monkey in the cage that gets rewarded (So far at least) for every push of the button. So again nothing is off the table, as we are all literally all on the table in this new financial repression & MMT world.
- Economic data wise: Standouts are likely to be 2nd reading on US GDP, as well as PCE & personal spending & Personal income data. There is a tentative date for the treasury currency report, could they perhaps mention the SNB & have an impact on CHF crosses? Not sure… We do have inflation figures out of the EZ & JP, GDP out of CA & capex out of AU.
- Central Banks: Rate decision wise we will hear from BoK where ar e25bp cut is expected to +0.50% - yep, yep… they are currently still +0.75% is a 0% to negative yielding bank world. BoC’s Poloz will be talking, as will a few Fed members including Williams, Kashkari & Bullard. KVP would also put Norges Bank deputy Bache on the radar.
- US: House Prices & new Homes sales, PMIs from Richmond & Chicago, 2nd GDP reading on 1QGDP -4.8%e/p, Durable Goods, Core PCE, Personal Spending + Personal Income, UoM, tentative on Treasury currency Report
- CH: Data light wk
- EZ: GER final GDP -2.2%p, ECB financial stability review, M3 Money Supply, Private Loans, CPI Flash
- JP: All industries activity, BoJ + Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales
- UK: House Prices, CBI realized sales, consumer Confidence
- AU: Construction Work, Private Capital Expenditure, Private Sector credit
- NZ: Trade Balance, RBNZ Financial Stability Report, ANZ Business Confidence
- CA: Current Account, GDP m/m, Corporate Profits
Please Make The Bandwidth For The Following…
- Latest Macro Digest from our CIO & Head of Research-Strategy, Jakobsen. Macro Digest: Strategy Change - Neutral Risk to Negative Risk - The real "virus" is insolvency and unemployment
- May 14 Thu – Saxo Market Call, where we touched on bitcoin, gold, negative rates & banks – again keep reflagging this one, as there is a lot of shelf life in the themes discussed here
- Macro Dragon: Checking-in on Bitcoin... Legendary Trader Paul Tudor Jones, is in Love, with Bitcoin & Gold...
- Banging the drums & blowing the trumpets on this again… this will be max one of the special eight from KVP this year
- Make time for NOK & Norway folks, JJH touches on part of the implication on the fiscal measures announced last wk FX Update: NOK to break higher on massive stimulus?
- Dragon’s bull case for gold… Dissecting Gold part II of III... The Bull & of course a framework for the other side Dissecting Gold part I of III... The Bear
- Dembik on the German/French initiatives last wk: The Franco-German initiative: A promising start
- Lastly on shelf life ideas & think pieces, our latest monthly exercise: Re-Up pt III... High Probability Pathways & Scenarios?
Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.